Mercedes have very professionally gone about their business in 2025, both on and off track. The W16 is meeting the targets of Brackley’s engineers, consistently fighting for podiums and proving a more consistent car than its predecessor.
However, the Silver Arrows recognise that the 2026 regulations represent an opportunity.
Aside from the massive aerodynamic overhaul due next year, there will also be brand new engines.
Mercedes know better than most about acing a new set of regulations – and reports increasingly indicate they are in a strong position for 2026.
Mercedes start the year with a strong foundation
For obvious reason, the German manufacturer should not be written off this season.
In the early days of this year’s campaign, the W16 has met several key objectives of James Allison’s technical department.
Most importantly, the latest Mercedes challenger appears relatively predictable and stable.
This is true both in terms of its aerodynamic tendencies and resistance to wind intensity and air temperatures.
Not only is this positive for raw performance, but it also provides a strong platform for future development.
Unlike the last few seasons, Toto Wolff’s personnel can have some confidence about their update packages.
The Mercedes team principal is satisfied with the beginning of the 2025 campaign:
“Overall, it’s been a good start to the new season,” Wolff said after the Chinese GP.
“The ambition is to win, but we don’t feel any entitlement that we should.
“The car is not quite as fast as McLaren at the moment, but the team are working hard to close that gap.
“For now, we are maximising the performance we have, and to leave China second in the Constructors Championship, having taken two podiums for the first two races, is satisfying.”
Mercedes aren’t afraid to abandon 2025
Despite the reasons for optimism outlined above, there is still an elephant in the room for Mercedes and indeed the other top teams.
On paper, McLaren could be within touching distance of Toto Wolff’s team.
It would be hasty to declare the Woking-based team Champions just yet, especially given that further rear wing restrictions are set to be implemented.
Still, there is no denying that Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have the best car this season.
McLaren could be too far away to catch this year – at least without dedicating hundreds of wind tunnel hours and pulling engineers away from concept work on the new regulations.
Mercedes must be pragmatic about their approach, considering that allocating resources to this year could compromise their 2026 challenger.
Speaking of which, both George Russell and Toto Wolff have spoken about the importance of next year.
This is for good reason, too, given that the Brackley-based outfit are understood to be making good progress with their 2026 power unit.
Several drivers, including Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon, have expressed confidence that Mercedes will deliver a top engine in twelve months.
Numerous reports over recent weeks have validated these comments, with the team’s factory in Brixworth expected to produce another leading power unit.
With new manufacturers like Audi and RBPT joining the grid in 2026, Mercedes’ most natural competitors will be established names like Honda and Ferrari.
Should they produce a better engine than these brands, they will be in a very strong position next year.
As it stands, Mercedes are the favourites to set the standard in twelve months time.
Positive signs for 2026
Considering that George Russell expressed confidence for the 2026 regulations as early as last May, suggestions about Mercedes’ resurgence should not be dismissed as mere rumour.
Moreover, unlike Red Bull (and perhaps Ferrari) circumstances make it very simple for Mercedes to prioritise 2026 early.
Indeed, their switch to next season will almost certainly happen earlier than the other front-runners.
Christian Horner, meanwhile, has been quite candid about Red Bull’s intention to continue developing until they fix the RB21’s issues.
It should also be noted that Mercedes have been unaffected by latest flexi-wing regulations.
Unlike some of their rivals, they won’t have to waste financial or intellectual currency on rear wing modifications – which is another chore they can avoid in the coming months.
There is no need for compromise at Mercedes, who could reassert themselves at the very front of F1.
