Red Bull’s decision to promote Liam Lawson over Yuki Tsunoda was one of the biggest talking points in F1 last winter.
Across the paddock, the consensus was that Tsunoda deserved a chance alongside Verstappen.
This was not the only example of Tsunoda’s market value increasing though – as several teams wanted his services for 2025.
Unfortunately for Tsunoda, Red Bull activated their option on his contract – preventing him from leaving.
However, the Japanese driver is likely to explore alternatives to the Red Bull family over the coming months.
Tsunoda: Red Bull journey coming to an end?
Red Bull spent the majority of last season deliberating on their driver line-up and potential replacement for Sergio Perez.
Once Lawson was brought in at Ricciardo’s expense, it was became a clear shootout between Tsunoda and Lawson for a promotion.
However, the rhetoric from Christian Horner consistently indicated that Lawson was his preferred choice.
His comments in interviews validated what outlets including LWOS reported throughout 2024 – Horner has never been especially enthusiastic about Yuki Tsunoda.
Although Helmut Marko showed more belief Tsunoda’s abilities, this was not enough to tip the scales.
There are many consequences that come from Lawson’s promotion to the main team.
For Tsunoda, the biggest takeaway is that Red Bull have no intention of putting him alongside Max Verstappen.
Considering his performances against Ricciardo, Lawson and De Vries, there is no reason to expect that Tsunoda’s performances against Hadjar will change Red Bull’s perception.
Christian Horner has already indicated that Tsunoda staying at VCARB beyond 2025 would be impractical.
Tsunoda surely shares this perspective. The question is whether better opportunities materialise for the 24-year-old in the F1 market.
What are Tsunoda’s other options?
On paper, the driver market should be far less unpredictable in 2025 than it was last season.
Given the volume of changes and contract agreements made over the last twelve months, a more stable market is likely this year.
There are far fewer options for Tsunoda outside of the Red Bull set-up.
This is largely because the Austrian team prevented him from going elsewhere last season – when there was interest from multiple teams.
Haas and Sauber/Audi are among those believed to have wanted Tsunoda’s services for this year.
Interest is understood to have been especially strong from Haas. Team principal Ayao Komatsu is a known admirer of Tsunoda.
Despite missing out on a more volatile market in 2024, there could still be openings this season.
One team that are rarely linked to Tsunoda, but could certainly consider him, is Cadillac.
READ MORE: Cadillac’s leading options for 2026
As it stands, the likes of Colton Herta and Valtteri Bottas are seen as leading candidates for the US project.
However, it stands to reason that Tsunoda’s market value is already higher than Bottas’ – and it could rise even higher still.
Assuming that the 24-year-old outperforms another teammate (Hadjar) this season, there is reason to believe interest in his services will rise.
Moving on from Cadillac, the Japanese driver is frequently linked with an Aston Martin seat – a theory which has gathered momentum since Honda’s arrival.
In reality, there is little evidence to suggest that Honda will have definitive impact on Aston’s driver line-up.
Still, his links with the Japanese manufacturer are worth noting.
A difficult market at the best time
As outlined above, the paths forward for Tsunoda – should he leave the Red Bull stable – are very limited.
However, the good news is that the 2025 season could be the calm before the storm.
Whilst this year’s market will be very quiet, the script will completely flip when the 2026 campaign begins.
Most driver contracts are expiring at the end of 2026.
Even those on deals that run until 2027 and beyond (like Max Verstappen) will certainty explore their options in eighteen months time.
Assuming the new regulations shake up the pecking order as anticipated, there will be immense movement across the paddock.
Because of this, Tsunoda’s priority is not necessarily to find his ideal fit in contract negotiations.
Provided he secures a place on next year’s grid – wherever that is – he puts himself in a position to benefit from his rising demand for his services – without any intervention from Red Bull.
