Despite activating their option on Tsunoda’s contract in 2024 and preventing him from leaving, Red Bull’s long-term plans for Tsunoda are limited. The Milton Keynes team could replace the 24-year-old this season – with a leading candidate already established.
Yuki Tsunoda’s Red Bull future
With the 2025 season fast-approaching, there are important dynamics to consider in the driver market.
Perhaps the most consistent source of driver speculation is Red Bull, and their second team VCARB. For over eighteen months, it was Sergio Perez’s future that dominated headlines.
The decision to promote Liam Lawson, whilst obviously significant, is unlikely to and the constant merry-to-round at Milton Keynes and Faenza.
Putting aside Lawson’s chances against Max Verstappen, there is another major consideration – where Yuki Tsunoda fits in the team’s plans.
Since Tsunoda began matching Pierre Gasly in 2022, the Japanese driver has been an ideal reference at VCARB.
The Faenza-based outfit have relied on him to secure the majority of their points in recent seasons. This is unlikely to change over the course of 2025.
With that said, Red Bull have shown little interest in promoting him. Even after his strong showings against Nyck de Vries and Daniel Ricciardo, Christian Horner’s team decided against promoting Tsunoda.
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Considering the level of Tsunoda’s performance last year, Red Bull’s perspective of him appears set in stone.
For comparison, Red Bull seemingly glossed over Lawson’s clash with Bottas at the Qatar GP. In a similar way, relatively little was said after he showed Sergio Perez the middle finger in Mexico.
These moments are more extreme versions of the incidents that Tsunoda has often been criticised for. Christian Horner’s analysis of the VCARB duo, as reported by LWOS earlier in the season, was often indicative that Lawson was always the preferred option to join the main team.
With this in mind, Yuki Tsunoda is likely to explore other options this year.
A new favourite at Red Bull
Not only is this logical given the lack of opportunity at Red Bull, but Helmut Marko has already identified a potential replacement for the Japanese driver.
It would not be an exaggeration to suggest that Red Bull’s academy has not been optimised in recent years.
Due to a combination of available talent and the team’s decisions, their young talents have typically failed to make the step up into the main team.
With this in mind, their enthusiasm for Arvid Lindblad is noteworthy.
The 17-year-old will debut in Formula 2 this season, having fought for the Formula 3 Championship last year – eventually finishing in 4th place.
Red Bull are extremely optimistic about Lindblad, with Helmut Marko speaking in glowing terms about the academy driver on numerous occasions in the last twelve months.
Lindblad is also on the verge of securing the necessary Super License points to race in F1. Should be perform well in F2 this season, it would be unsurprising to see him earn a seat at VCARB.
Meanwhile, Christian Horner has admitted that keeping Tsunoda beyond 2025 could be impractical.
Despite being a strong benchmark for Red Bull to assess other candidates, their interest in Tsunoda beyond this is limited.
After all, VCARB is a team designed for Red Bull candidates. For all of Tsunoda’s efforts, there it little evidence that Red Bull have any interest in promoting him.
Although there are less options in the market compared, there should still be openings for the Japanese driver in 2025.
Assuming a favourable offer presents itself, Tsunoda could be one of the first drivers to sign with a new team this year.
