Yuki Tsunoda is expected to miss out on a 2025 Red Bull seat, which will likely be filled by Liam Lawson. The Japanese driver’s prospects at Milton Keynes are limited, with a promotion still out of reach.
Tsunoda loses out to Lawson in race for Red Bull contract
Since arriving to VCARB at the American GP, Liam Lawson was well-positioned to replace Sergio Perez.
Christian Horner, whose influence over decisions has sharply increased relative to Helmut Marko, is understood to have long-standing reservations about promoting Tsunoda.
Meanwhile, Horner sees Lawson as someone capable of improving and performing at a high level for Red Bull.
Not for the first time in recent years, Tsunoda became a useful benchmark for the Austrian team to evaluate a more highly rated candidate.
However, he himself was never at the top of Red Bull’s shortlist for 2025.
Lawson was always Christian Horner’s preference
The Red Bull team principal hinted at his preference before Lawson’s debut:
“I think Yuki’s stepped up a gear again this year.
“It’s just going to be fascinating to see how quickly he [Lawson] adapts, how quickly he gets on with it…
“Taking him as the data point, we saw where Daniel compared to Yuki.
“It will just be very interesting to see how Liam performs over the remining six races.”
These comments, like many from Red Bull’s senior personnel, described Tsunoda as an important reference for the team – as opposed to a candidate to partner Verstappen.
READ MORE: Liam Lawson set to replace Sergio Perez
Perhaps it would be a stretch to suggest that Tsunoda was never in contention for a Red Bull seat.
There was always a scenario where, if Lawson struggled in his comeback, the Japanese driver would be the only realistic option to be promoted.
However, this was always unlikely to happen
Because of the experience gap between Lawson and Tsunoda, the Kiwi was never expected to outperform his teammate.
Instead, the 22-year-old’s target was to be within touching distance of Tsunoda.
By doing this, the VCARB driver would give Christian Horner the confidence that – with more experience – he could become a strong asset for Red Bull.
Tsunoda in a lose-lose situation
In many ways, this dynamic has always been present within the Milton Keynes outfit.
When Yuki Tsunoda faced off against Nyck de Vries, the expectation heading into 2023 was that the Dutchman would lead the team.
Helmut Marko was among those who expected De Vries to be VCARB’s fastest driver.
When Tsunoda outperformed his new teammate, the conclusion was not that he deserved praise or a chance at Red Bull.
Instead, the team concluded that De Vries was not fast enough – resulting in Ricciardo’s mid-season arrival.
Similarly, despite showing some flashes of his old self, Daniel Ricciardo also failed to outscore Tsunoda.
In controversial but not necessarily unprecedented circumstances, the 8-time race winner was replaced at the Singapore GP.
Speaking of Daniel Ricciardo, Christian Horner’s team have spent over half a decade trying to find someone capable of matching his output. Until now, their efforts have been unsuccessful.
For now, Lawson is set to be their next attempt to reinforce Verstappen.
Lawson enters a more forgiving Red Bull environment
Liam Lawson, though perhaps half a step slower than Tsunoda, drove at a respectable level this season.
Because of this, there is evidence enough for Christian Horner that Lawson could meaningfully contribute at Red Bull.
Moreover, unlike in previous years, Red Bull seem far more willing to give their drivers time to acclimatise.
However, none of this will take away from the growing frustration about Tsunoda’s place in the team.
After all, Lawson has been involved in his fair share of incidents since returning to F1 – yet receives far less scrutiny for these errors than Tsunoda did in previous years.
Looking ahead to the 2026 regulation changes, it would not be surprising if – like former teammate Pierre Gasly – Tsunoda grows tired of being overlooked and considers options elsewhere on the grid.
Tsunoda’s post-season Red Bull test, whilst noteworthy, only happened at Honda’s insistence.
It does not reflect any change in the Austrian team’s driver preferences.
