For all the F1 news stories about Red Bull’s driver line-up, there are genuine concerns about their 2025 package. The problems that limited the RB20’s progression are also threatening to Red Bull on the backfoot next season.
Correlation and wind tunnel inaccuracies are an emerging Red Bull concern
Despite finishing 63 points ahead of Lando Norris in the standings, Max Verstappen did not have the fastest car for most of the season.
After the upgrades introduced in Japan, Red Bull went several months were they failed to deliver more performance on the RB20.
The package brought to the Hungarian GP, which failed to perform as the wind tunnel suggested, was the beginning of an extended period of stagnation at Milton Keynes.
Although the team managed to take a step forward later in the season, they still lost significant ground to Ferrari and McLaren.
Marko: Red Bull’s simulation tools don’t work
Speaking after the Abu Dhabi GP, Helmut Marko explained why Red Bull still have problems to overcome.
“If they [McLaren] take this form into next year and we don’t improve, then it will be even tighter than it is today,” he told Sky Germany.
“It’s not a completely new start because the regulations are stable.
“But our weaknesses are still that we get to the track and the correlation between all the simulations, the wind tunnel and reality doesn’t work.
“And the car is in a much too narrow window in which it works. Our technical group has a lot of work to do.”
Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes on the rise
Thanks to the other top teams dropping the ball in 2023, Red Bull enjoyed a huge advantage twelve months ago – one they themselves didn’t anticipate.
Technical Director, Pierre Wache, has admitted that this year’s competition is what they were expecting to face last season.
After successfully undoing their previous mistakes and establishing a better aerodynamic platform, McLaren and Ferrari have comprehensively out developed the Austrian squad.
Formula 1 is always a relative game, so perhaps it is unfair to say Red Bull were fortunate that other teams experienced such difficulties in 2023.
However, it is becoming increasingly clear that Red Bull are finding it harder to add more performance to their car.
Max Verstappen spent large parts of the season complaining about the RB20’s characteristics.
Only partial solutions were found, and they were introduced in the dying parts of the season.
For a team who seemed to have a superior understanding of these regulations just twelve months ago, this is a worrying trend.
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Red Bull must overcome a familiar problem
Helmut Marko’s comments about the poor simulator to track correlation are extremely relevant.
Red Bull’s inability to unlock more performance could be more about a fundamental limitation than a temporary blip.
The same wind tunnel troubles that have haunted Aston Martin and Mercedes (though Mercedes have largely overcome this issue) will add an element of uncertainty to their winter development.
With four teams capable of competing for victories, the margin for error is smaller than ever.
Red Bull cannot rely on Verstappen to produce magic and put the car in positions it doesn’t deserve to be in for an entire season.
Their challenge is to prove their concept isn’t as limited as Christian Horner and other personnel have admitted it could be.
