Red Bull are carrying plenty of momentum after their Suzuka triumph, with Max Verstappen re-asserting himself as a genuine title contender. The Dutchman’s brilliance, alongside improvements to the RB21, are putting McLaren under pressure.
After two difficult rounds in Australia and China, Red Bull made a step forward with the RB21 in Japan.
The team’s extensive set-up work with Verstappen and Yuki Tsunoda played a central role in putting the car in a better operating window.
With that said, Red Bull are also looking forward to a potential McLaren dip – which they are increasingly confident will unfold.
Red Bull expect McLaren will suffer from flexi-wing regulations
It seems like a lifetime ago that the FIA’s clampdown on flexi-wings dominated headlines after Australia.
Still, the introduction of new regulations to prevent teams from circumventing rear wing flexibility tests should not be overlooked.
At the time, it was reported that McLaren were among those forced to make adjustments to comply with the FIA’s new tests.
Whilst McLaren themselves denied this, the prevailing belief is that the Woking team have benefited form aeroplasticity and flexibility more than rivals.
Therefore, some teams speculate that additional FIA restrictions could hurt their performance.
Of course, the new regulations introduced in China are not the end of this saga.
Another set of more strict scrutineering methodologies will be introduced at round 9 at the Spanish GP.
This will be more focused on front wings, something which Red Bull believe will negatively impact McLaren.
According to Red Bull team principal Christian Horner, the pecking order could shift substantially:
“Well look, I mean, in the first three races we’ve [finished] 0.8 of a second behind Lando – We were fourth in China and won this race.
“So we’re one point behind in the driver’s Championship,” he told Channel 4.
“Don’t underestimate the regulation change of race 9, you know, with these front wings.
“That could be a game-changer. The first four [teams] are super tight, and as you well know, there’s no better tonic than a win.”
Red Bull fight to keep Verstappen
Horner’s comments are not only relevant for this year’s title battle, but also regarding Max Verstappen’s position.
The 4-time Champion continues to demonstrate his calibre – making the difference even with Red Bull’s shortcomings.
In this context, the Milton Keynes teams are aware that delivering the Dutchman a race-winning car is essential.
If not, rival teams (whether it be Aston Martin or Mercedes) could try and sign Verstappen after 2026 – when new engine regulations could put Red Bull on the defensive anyway.
Christian Horner insists that Red Bull can retain Verstappen’s services by improving the car:
“I think Max has made his position very clear on that before the weekend.
“He’s very committed to the team, the environment he’s in.
“He’s working harder than I’ve ever seen behind the scenes with his engineering staff.
“Max is, of course, the most demand driver in the paddock.
“But I think he’s content where he is, we know we need to continue improving – and I don’t see him anywhere else.”
How significant is McLaren’s advantage?
For obvious reasons, Red Bull have reason for optimism heading into the Bahrain GP.
Verstappen claiming victory in Japan, aside from changing the Championship’s complexion, has shifted focus away from the Tsunoda and Lawsons swap.
Speaking of which, Tsunoda’s pace last weekend was promising – even if his qualifying was detrimental to his points on Sunday.
Assuming the 24-year-old can score points this weekend, Red Bull can depend on a more stable foundation to build upon moving forward.
At the same time, McLaren’s advantage should not be underestimated.
The MCL39 is still the fastest car, and they should win races if Norris and Piastri execute clean weekends.
Red Bull’s priority, at least for the short-term, will be to stay within touching distance of the papaya duo.
Once upgrades arrive to the RB21 in Imola (followed by the FIA’s new flexi-wing regulations), they will try to out-develop Andrea Stella’s squad.
