Mercedes were relatively anonymous during the Japanese GP, crossing the line in 5th and 6th. Both George Russell and Kimi Antonelli executed sensible races, but the W16 lacked the pace to trouble the podium positions.
After successive podiums in the first two races, George Russell has warned that Mercedes need more performance.
More specifically, the British driver emphasised that McLaren are yet to hit their ceiling.
Mercedes settle for third-fastest team in Suzuka
After Friday Practice, it was George Russell who appeared McLaren’s closest threat.
With red flag interruptions preventing any serious high-fuel runs, teams could only complete qualifying simulations in FP1 and FP2.
Over one lap, Russell put himself within a tenth of the McLaren duo.
He set these times whilst the likes of Ferrari and Red Bull – including Max Verstappen – struggled for pace and overall balance.
On Saturday and Sunday, however, the Silver Arrows found themselves a few steps away from the front.
Verstappen and the McLaren duo enjoyed a significant edge, whilst even Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari managed to put himself in P4.
The Mercedes W16 was not especially difficult in terms of handling, particularly for Kimi Antonelli.
The 18-year-old’s pace has been extremely impressive – already keeping George Russell honest in both qualifying and race.
However, in terms of high-speed performance, there is a clear deficit to McLaren and Red Bull.
Russell weary of the McLaren threat
As mentioned previously on LWOS, this year’s development race could evolve rapidly over the coming weeks and months.
With the 2026 regulations incoming, teams will shift their resources to next year sooner than they would ordinarily.
In this context, Mercedes need to be within striking distance of McLaren to justify wasting precious wind tunnel hours and financial resources on the W16.
Whilst definitive conclusions cannot be made at this stage, George Russell believes McLaren’s advantage could grow.
“In recent years, I haven’t been particularly consistent,” Sky Sports Germany quotes him as saying.
“And I wanted to work on that to have fewer ups and downs.
“It was a pretty good start to the year. I was relatively satisfied, and we couldn’t have done more in the first two races.
“4th place would probably have been appropriate today – now I’m 5th.
“We haven’t seen the best from the McLaren’s yet – they [Australia, China, Japan] were three cold races.”
Over the next two races in this triple-header, a clearer image of the pecking order will emerge.
Upgrades are also expected in Bahrain this week, which could further showcase the trajectory of certain teams.
For Mercedes, the Sakhir circuit could be a challenge – both in terms of circuit layout and track conditions.
Russell touched upon this race post-race:
“When we go to Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, we’ll have 35 degrees, and we’ll see the McLaren guys will shine.
“We were stronger in cooler conditions, so I’m staying realistic.
“We’ve had three good races, but there are still 21 more to come. It’s still a bit early.”
Mercedes have one eye on 2026
Moving forward, there are still a few unknown variables that could shake up the pecking order.
Critically, new restrictions could be implemented on flexi-wings, which could further dent McLaren’s advantage.
Red Bull have also demonstrated that, when put under pressure, the papaya team can fall short.
Still, Mercedes are in a different position to Red Bull in terms of the 2026 regulations. Unlike the Milton Keynes team, Mercedes are largely expected to deliver a top engine in twelve months’ time.
Because of this, the Brackley-based squad is likely more willing to reorient itself to next year – should McLaren prove too far away to catch.
