Whilst the upcoming F1 season promises to have several teams at the front, nobody knows what the 2026 regulations will bring. A completely new generation of cars and engines present a massive unknown. With that said, there are more question marks at Red Bull than any other top team.
For the first time in their history, Red Bull will produce their own F1 power units.
After years of being powered to victory by Honda, there are concerns about Red Bull’s transition into a manufacturer team.
Reliability, performance fears emerge at Red Bull
A number of variables will make the next generation of 2026 cars a step into the dark F1.
From new power units, to sustainable fuels and fresh aerodynamic regulations, there are many uncertainties.
Partly because of this, teams must be strategic with how they split resources between 2025 and 2026. Within a few months, the majority of the field will have shifted their focus to their 2026 new cars.
However, it is the new engines that promise to be most impactful on the pecking order.
Over the past few seasons, there has been virtually no difference between Ferrari, Mercedes and Honda power units.
In terms of horsepower, electrical efficiency and reliability, these manufacturers are all delivering at a similar level. Even Renault, who are currently the worst engine in F1, are giving up just three tenths per lap.
Whilst three tenths is not insignificant, it is nothing compared to the engine disparities that could emerge in 2026.
Much at the beginning of the hybrid era in 2014, when Mercedes engines blew Renault-powered Red Bull out of the water, the upcoming regulations could see massive gaps emerge between different power units.
The consensus for some time has been that Red Bull’s new engine division (Red Bull Powertrains) and Audi will be a few steps behind the established manufacturers.
More recently, a report from Italian outlet Autosprint suggests that performance and reliability concerns are emerging with the new Red Bull engine.
Though drawing conclusions at this stage would be premature, it would not be a surprise if the Milton Keynes team are playing catchup.
Putting together the infrastructure and personnel to create a competitive engine department takes time.
Audi, who could be in the same boat as Red Bull, already anticipate they will suffer an engine deficit in 2026.
Controlling the narrative
To be clear, Red Bull could still make a relatively smooth transition into 2026 and produce a strong engine.
However, in combination with the departure of several high-profile personnel, making new power units adds another element of uncertainty to their medium and long-term trajectory.
Rob Marshall and Adrian Newey are among the heavy-hitters to leave Christian Horner’s squad.
In the context of their stagnant development last season, the upcoming season is of the upmost importance for Red Bull.
At the surface level, defending Max Verstappen’s Championship crown is obviously the top priority.
Beyond this, it is also essential that Red Bull prevent the narrative of a potential decline to take root.
There are already suggestions that Verstappen is set to explore his options at the end of 2026 – a year when the Austrian team’s reign of dominance is most likely to conclude.
Whilst there is no reason to get carried away with suggestions the Dutchman is on his way out at Red Bull, the 4-time Champion will obviously want the fastest machinery.
If they fail to recover from last year’s decline, the pressure will be even greater heading into 2026.
For all of their Championships in recent years, there are no guarantees in F1. Red Bull, like every team, must constantly prove themselves and raise the standard.
As Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes progress, their margin for error is becoming smaller and smaller.
