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NASCAR Cup Series: Sonoma Predictions and How To Watch

Sean Gardner/Getty Images

The Cup Series returns to wine country as NASCAR goes to Sonoma. Let’s see if anyone can top the typical road course specialists this weekend.

NASCAR goes off the oval and back onto a road course this weekend with the Cup Series back in Sonoma. While NASCAR’s road course king Chase Elliott is back at the wheel after serving his one-race suspension, there is some bad news down the field with a penalty and an injury affecting two drivers.

First, we’ll address the injury. Noah Gragson, driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet, will not participate in this weekend’s running due to concussion-like symptoms.

Gragson crashed during last Sunday’s race at Gateway, and according to his team Legacy Motor Club, “he began to experience concussion-like symptoms mid-week” which will keep him out at Sonoma.

Replacing Gragson is Grant Enfinger, a 38-year-old veteran in NASCAR’s lower series. Enfinger is a full-time NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series driver, and has two wins in that series this season, including just last week at Gateway. It’s an exciting opportunity for Enfinger who will be making his first start in the Cup Series.

Another Penalty Handed Down

This week we saw another penalty issued in the Cup Series. The No. 43 Legacy Motor Club team was hit with an L-1 level penalty after it was found that their car had a modified greenhouse after last weekend’s race at Gateway.

As a result, both the team and driver Erik Jones were docked 60 points and five playoff points. Crew chief Dave Elenz has been suspended for two races and fined $75,000.

According to NASCAR.com, “The greenhouse is the top portion of the Cup Series car, including the roof, plus the front and rear glass — everything from the top of the doors upward.” Changes to this portion of the car would be for aerodynamic benefits, though they are illegal.

So another week where someone comes out with a penalty, but let’s see if the No. 43 can get a strong run at Sonoma to help make up for the lost points. It’s not completely out of the realm of possibility. Jones has the seventh-best average finish at Sonoma among active drivers who have raced there at least twice.

The Track

Sonoma Raceway is a 1.99-mile (3.20 km) road course located in Sonoma, California. The circuit has been used for several different racing series since it opened in 1968, including NASCAR. The Cup Series has visited the track every year since 1989, except in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

If there’s a NASCAR record for the track, it’s most likely held by Jeff Gordon. He is the all-time leader in wins, top-5s, top-10s, starts, pole positions, laps completed, and laps led at the track.

Among active drivers, Martin Truex Jr. has the most wins with three. Last year Daniel Suarez won at Sonoma, capturing his first career Cup Series victory.

A Lap of Sonoma

Sonoma, as you can see below, has several different configurations. NASCAR uses what’s called the Club Circuit, highlighted in red. That will also explain some of the odd corner names referenced below.

To begin the lap, the short front straight at Sonoma leads right into a steep uphill section at Turns 1 and 2. After that left-right combination, the drivers tackle some elevation changes at Turns 3-4a, with the first two being a quick chicane and the final being a fast right-hander known as the “Chute.”

The “Chute” tests drivers’ precision as they get close to the exit wall carrying fast speeds. It’s one of the more entertaining parts of the circuit for both drivers and fans. It then leads right into Turn 7a, a slow right-hander that feeds into the fast esses section on the back half of the lap.

The esses carry down the entire back section of the track from Turn 8a to Turn 10. Though the cars are mostly single file through here, it again requires precision from the drivers to carry enough speed and not be vulnerable heading into Turn 11.

The reason for that is that Turn 11 is a sharp hairpin and the best overtaking spot on the track. The right-hander will often see dive bombs and shoving as drivers battle for position. It also takes them into the kink at Turn 12 which is the final corner, meaning that any last-lap desperation usually comes to fruition at Turn 11.

Map of Sonoma Raceway, Nascar Circuit 2012 to date

Playoff Points Standings

Here are the playoff standings heading into the weekend. Chase Elliott is on the outside looking in and would slot in at 27th currently should he get a playoff waiver. Alex Bowman is the first driver out, just six points back of Daniel Suarez for the final spot.

  1. William Byron, Hendrick Motorsports
  2. Ryan Blaney, Team Penske
  3. Kyle Busch, Richard Childress Racing
  4. Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports
  5. Martin Truex Jr., Joe Gibbs Racing
  6. Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing
  7. Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing
  8. Christopher Bell, Joe Gibbs Racing
  9. Kevin Harvick, Stewart-Haas Racing
  10. Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing
  11. Joey Logano, Team Penske
  12. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., JTG Daugherty Racing
  13. Brad Keselowski, RFK Racing
  14. Chris Buescher, RFK Racing
  15. Bubba Wallace, 23XI Racing
  16. Daniel Suarez, Trackhouse Racing

Predictions

Chase Elliott is NASCAR’s best road course racer with an average road course finish of 6.6 since 2020. Despite that, he’s never won at Sonoma. Add that to the fact he is coming off a week out of the car due to suspension, and this weekend I’m turning to one of his teammates.

Kyle Larson has five poles in his last five trips to Sonoma, but he’s only converted them into one win. I think he’ll make it two wins in wine country this weekend with another strong performance.

  1. Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports
  2. William Byron, Hendrick Motorsports
  3. Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing
  4. A.J. Allmendinger, Kaulig Racing
  5. Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports

How To Watch – NASCAR at Sonoma (All times ET)

  • Practice: Saturday, June 10 – 5:00 p.m.  – FS2
  • Qualifying: Saturday, June 10 – 6:00 p.m. – FS2
  • Toyota/Save Mart 350: Sunday, June 11 – 3:30 p.m. – FOX

Featured image: Sean Gardner/Getty Images

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