For the fifth time in seven days we will have racing. This time we take a look into betting action for the Supermarket Heroes 500.
Odds on Odds: Supermarket Heroes 500
Thursday night provided yet another great race. One in which we saw Chase Elliott finally redeem what had been a miserable week. Elliott was wrecked at Darlington on Wednesday and then was called to pit road with three laps to go in the Coca Cola 600 on Sunday.
Bristol Motor Speedway is the first short track race of the season. At a place like this betting could become interesting. Look for experienced drivers to rise to the occasion again with no practice and qualifying.
Our large helping of racing comes to a close at one of the more unpredictable tracks. Drivers have pent up anger from all the previous events, exhaustion from the schedule and when you add in the last great colosseum. All hell is bound to break loose. When it comes to betting on the Supermarket Heroes 500 Sunday many drivers stand out.
Let’s take a deeper look at the betting favorites for the Supermarket Heroes 500 at Bristol.
All odds are through Vegas Insiders. Odds are subject to change prior to start of race.
Betting Favorites to win Supermarket Heroes 500
When you go to Bristol there is always one driver that comes to mind to win. The betting favorite to win the Supermarket Heroes 500 is Kyle Busch. Busch has dominated Bristol his entire career. The odds on favorite at +450, Busch is on track to pick up win one of the season. Busch has five wins at the spring event including the last two races. Toyota has struggled this season. Busch can turn around the fortunes with his success at Bristol.
Joey Logano is the next favorite at +650. He won the fall race twice back in 2014-2015. In recent years the track has not been near as lucky for the 2018 champion. If you are looking for a driver that isn’t named Busch, Logano is a solid betting pick for the Supermarket Heroes 500.
Bristol is always a close race. Sunday is expected to be the exact same. The oddsmakers are thinking the same thing. Four drivers are on the board at +800. Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex, Jr, Kevin Harvick and Chase Elliott are betting favorites to take Sunday. Each have experience and short amount of success at Bristol. Harvick and Hamlin each have a win at Bristol. It’s also a track that both lead lots of laps at. Truex has had the least amount of success at the track. He hasn’t been very good at short tracks in general. Elliott is still pretty fresh to the short track in Tennessee. His father has one victory at the track. Look for each of these drivers to be good bets come Sunday.
The favorites list is short but it makes a point when you have a combined 14 wins at Bristol among the seven drivers.
Outside Favorites/ Value Picks
This list has a few names that probably could be favorites for Sunday but their number is really high and that is why they get listed as a value pick. That may also not be a bad thing either.
Right away the eye goes to Ryan Blaney. On the board at +1300, Blaney is almost a steal at those odds. He has led nearly 300 laps in the past four races at Bristol and was dominate in the spring of 2019. It may be a different aero package that the teams are using but still, Bristol is a good track for Blaney. With him being such a good driver at Bristol and has some decent money in his pocket, he could be the value to add.
The other value that jumps off the page is Kyle’s older brother, Kurt Busch. He is +1800 and is another driver who dominates Bristol. During his Roush Racing days, Busch won four times including three straight spring races. In total, KB has collected six Bristol victories. There are two great adds to your fantasy lineup as both will be in contention.
As we have seen so far in 2020, Hendrick Motorsports has found its groove and looks really strong. Heading into Bristol, Alex Bowman has a ton of momentum and probably some built up anger to release. Much like his teammate Elliott, Bowman has been in contention to win every race that has been ran since coming back. A few problems along that way have hindered his chances though. At +2000, Bowman is a value pick and a darn good one at that.
His other teammate at Hendrick is none other than seven-time Jimmie Johnson. At some point his 103 race losing streak will end and Sunday could be the day. JJ has been much much more improved this season and will have his best shot at claiming victory on Sunday. Johnson is +2200 for many of the sports books and bettors are looking at claiming him. Why not? His streak will end at some point and could he add Bristol win number three along the way?
The other value picks that grab your attention is Clint Bowyer and Erik Jones both at +2500. They have each their own this season but Bowyer has seen some good runs get taken away and Jones has been consistent.
Upset Options for the Supermarket Heroes 500
Bristol, may lend a hand to the veterans. It is also very unpredictable at how we get to a final there. Sunday will be no different and if there is one guy who can pull off the upset card in Thunder Valley its Matt DiBenedetto. At +3300, he is almost a value pick but his back story and underdog status still flies currently. Matty D. finished second in the fall race here last season. He drove a very underfunded BK Racing car to a sixth place finish a few seasons ago. He loves this track and is very good. It may be a deal where there is only one upset to talk about and it comes from the Wood Brothers camp.
Another driver who is very good at Bristol and riding high after a top five at Charlotte is Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. His season could have gone so much better to this point but what a boost it was for him on Thursday to get that top five. Now he goes into his best track where he has a second place finish at with momentum. Look for Stenhouse at +4000 to be around near the end with a chance to win.
Richard Childress Racing has definitely stepped up their game. A great week in Charlotte concludes and they look to be betting options in the Supermarket Heroes 500. Austin Dillon at +8000 and rookie Tyler Reddick at +5000 have really shown that they do have a shot to win. Reddick enjoys Bristol and Dillon tends to be near the front as well. Expect nothing to change Sunday and even use them in your fantasy lineup.
Another upset to keep an eye on is Bubba Wallace. Talk about bad luck, Wallace and company have lost two brake hubs in back to back races at Charlotte while running top 15 and top 10 respectively. Bubba drove an old car around Kyle Busch a couple of seasons ago at Bristol so look for the 43 to be near the front. Should he pull off the upset, then look out because that party may last until they show up at Atlanta the next week.
Betting on Rookies in Supermarket Heroes 500
We just finished mentioning Tyler Reddick and his success this season. The whole rookie class, though, has been stout. Christopher Bell has struggled this season but has seemed to find his way lately and now shows up at Bristol with a chance to win. Bell is on the board at +150000.
Fellow rookies Cole Custer and John Hunter Nemechek are both doing their parts in this rookie class as well. In fact, Nemechek has been one of the classes of the field outside of Reddick. All a surprise to many as his cars had not been that great before his arrival. Nemechek was running and finished top ten in a couple of post-COVID races. Custer is +150000 and Nemechek is at +300000 for Sunday’s event.
Projected Fantasy Lineup
Bad luck has struck in the last few races so we look to turn it around. Bristol, during the day tends to play its hand towards veteran drivers. That is what you can expect to be in the lineup this Sunday. Maybe, except one driver.
Thursday night was a struggle all the way around. From Prop bets to picks there was no luck to be found. This race is bound to be better.
This week we will have in the DraftKings fantasy lineup: Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, Kurt Busch, Alex Bowman, Austin Dillon and John Hunter Nemecheck.
Match-ups, Value and Upset Picks
Betting on the Supermarket Heroes 500 will be strong as it is going to be one of the most watched races this season. Everyone loves Bristol and will sit and watch. Therefore they need something to watch for and here are a few of my ideas for some props to look for.
My favorite match-up to watch this week is Ryan Blaney(-120) vs. Martin Truex, Jr.(EVEN). Blaney has been good at Bristol and Truex has just struggled. Now Truex is in JGR equipment at the half mile track and is running the same stuff as him dominant teammate. When it comes to this match-up so many things could go in the right way to make it successful but one bad decision and it burns all of your opportuity. With Blaney the favorite, I’m sticking with him and taking Ryan Blaney over Martin Truex, Jr in this match-up.
The next best match-up is Erik Jones(-140) vs. Jimmie Johnson(+120). Two completely opposite drivers here. Johnson a two time winner here and a seven time Cup series champion. Jones is a three time winner in the Cup series with only two points paying victories. If you covered up the numbers you’d say Johnson was having the best year but it’s been Jones. He has been consistent and will keep the car in one piece. Unfortunately, I have not been kind to Joe Gibbs Racing and it will continue. I’m taking Johnson to upset Jones in this matchup Sunday.
My value pick is going to be Kurt Busch. It was so hard to not choose Blaney but he hasn’t had great luck. Kurt Busch is always around at the end of the race at Bristol and will make life hell on the leader if he is within striking distance. Look for Chip Ganassi to take to Twitter come Sunday night and use his hashtag ‘I like winners’ when KB puts it in victory lane.
The upset pick is pretty darn easy simply because there are experts taking this guy to win the race. Matt DiBenedetto is the upset pick to win. I shouldn’t look at him as an upset at +3300 but he is in a little lesser equipment and I just feel that his story qualifies him for an underdog role. Look for the 21 to make strides and be in contention.
The Pick for the Supermarket Heroes 500 is…?
Betting on the Supermarket Heroes 500 is and will be interesting. Do you want to pick a favorite? Maybe you want a lesser known driver? What about taking a complete underdog? all these questions fly when you go to Bristol.
This makes picking a winner hard and with the way the season has been already, there is just no way to make the best pick and feel uncomfortable until it happens. Kurt Busch is good here and so is brother Kyle. In fact the two of them have 10 wins in the facility. It bodes perfect for their driving styles. That is why Rusty Wallace was so good here. He didn’t care he was going to move you if need be.
There are so many good drivers in Nascar today that it makes it hard to just pick one. Bristol is a fun track to watch as a fan and again we have mentioned it a ton, Bristol tends to be a veterans type track. Being aggressive and using the bumper is mandatory. The pick for the Supermarket Heroes 500 is…
The Candy Man can on Sunday. Busch has been the best driver at Bristol and will go down as one of the best to ever do it. Love him or hate him the numbers don’t lie and Kyle Busch is going to pick up win number 11 at Bristol and his thrid straight spring victory.
It was tough to not take his brother Kurt who is good here as well as Elliott. Harvick will also be good. Again, you can talk yourself around it but at the end of the day only one name continues to arise and its Kyle Busch.
The Supermarket Heroes 500 goes green on FOX and PRN at 3:30pm EST.