The college football season rolls on with a slate of Week 3 match-ups that will have a pivotal impact on conference title races, and the College Football Playoff. Our panel of Steen Kirby, Yesh Ginsburg, John Bava, and Mike Loveall are on hand to preview and predict conference match-ups between FSU and Louisville, Alabama and Ole Miss, and USC and Stanford, and non-conference match-ups between Ohio State and Oklahoma, Michigan State and Notre Dame, and Oregon and Nebraska.
Tailgate Pick ‘Em Week 3 College Football Predictions Including FSU vs. Louisville
#2 Florida State at #10 Louisville (Saturday 12:00 P.M.)
Line: Florida State by 2
Steen: QB Lamar Jackson and the Cardinals will look to get off to a fast start against the Seminoles in their biggest home game in years. This is a top 10 match-up, and Louisville is chomping at the bit to knock off the Noles. With star DB Derwin James out with a knee injury, the FSU secondary is a man down, and I’d expect the Cardinals to be able to score, although FSU is a great team at making second half adjustments, as we saw in the Ole Miss comeback.
DeAndre Francois and Dalvin Cook lead the Noles, and the offense line will need to step up and avoid penalties if they are going to keep up with the Cardinals pace. FSU should be worried about this game, but they are the more talented team, and I see them leading another comeback and waking up to win the second half, and the game. Florida State 31, Louisville 28
Yesh: Lamar Jackson is a beast. I have to start off by saying that. Now, Deondre Francois for Florida State is now slouch at quarterback either. But this might be the biggest game in Louisville football history and I expect the Cardinals to show up big time. Florida State might have better athletes at a lot of positions, but it’s not by much and this Louisville team plays excellent fundamental football. A few mistakes will be the difference in this game; I think it’s more likely to come from FSU and the Seminoles young quarterback. Louisville 31, Florida State 28
John: Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson hasn’t taken long to establish himself as an early season Heisman contender. Through two games, the sophomore standout is one of only two players in the country to have exceeded 1,000 total yards (Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes is the other). But those big numbers came against largely overmatched opponents. Florida State is an altogether different animal.
The Noles got off to a slow start against Ole Miss. But after trailing 28-6, they put up 33 unanswered points en route to a 45-34 win. Deondre Francois epitomized his team’s overall play. After starting out shaky, the redshirt freshman quarterback really grew up before our eyes and finished with 419 passing yards and two touchdowns.
The biggest X-factor in this game will be the FSU defense. The unit has already forced seven turnovers which is fifth nationally. If it can force Jackson into errors like they did Chad Kelly against Ole Miss, the Noles should prevail. Florida State 42, Louisville 38
Mike: There’s no doubt that Louisville will have the biggest impact on the College Football Playoffs this year. They play two ACC teams (FSU and Clemson) that have legitimate chances at the CFP and play an out-of-conference team (Houston) that already has an inside track to an undefeated season. But here’s the thing: this Cardinals team is good enough to beat any of those teams. Lamar Jackson is ringing stats like a pinball stuck in the mega-max bumper. Can he play pinball wizard and beat an FSU team that proved their mettle in a Week 1 come-from-behind win over Ole Miss? FSU is tested and experienced. And their defense is just good enough to hold off the high flying Cardinals. Florida State 35, Louisville 31
#1 Alabama at #19 Ole Miss (Saturday 3:30 P.M.)
Line: Alabama by 10
Steen: Ole Miss has proven they can beat Bama, and they are playing at home. Chad Kelly is a great QB, and the Ole Miss defense will look to recover after they struggled in the second half vs. FSU in week 1. Alabama has been a machine thus far, they found a QB, and are stacked on both sides of the ball. Nick Saban’s Tide are the #1 team in the country for a reason right now, and Ole Miss isn’t as good as they were last year, with that in mind, Alabama should grab a win. Alabama 35, Ole Miss 24
Yesh: I would love to see Ole Miss win this game, if only so I can watch Nick Saban’s press conference afterwards. Alabama’s offense hasn’t found true consistency yet, which could prove troublesome against this Ole Miss defense. The Rebels offense brought a game plan against Florida State that would work well against Alabama if it can be executed better than in that opening game. I think this game can stay close, but I can’t imagine anyone beating a Nick Saban team three years in a row. Alabama 31, Ole Miss 24
John: Ole Miss is one of the few teams that’s had Alabama’s number in recent years. The Rebels have won the last two meetings between the two programs. That included an early season 43-37 win last season that appeared to dash the Crimson Tide’s championship hopes. But we all know what eventually happened.
Given the recent history between these two teams, expect Nick Saban to have his side focused and ready to return to winning ways in this series. Defensively, the Tide should be a handful for quarterback Chad Kelly and company. The unit is top 20 nationally in points allowed (8.0), sacks (7.0) and interceptions (3). If Kelly replicates his performance against Florida State, it could be a long day for the home team in Oxford. Alabama 41, Ole Miss 24
Mike: Alabama has lost two in a row to Ole Miss. In fact, Ole Miss counts for 2/3rds of all of Alabama’s losses in the last two years. However, the tide of fortune has turned since last year’s game in Tuscaloosa. The Tide is 14-0 since with a national championship. Ole Miss – even with a Sugar Bowl win – is only 8-4 and suffered a demoralizing loss to Florida State in Week 1. The Rebels coughed up a big lead and some fumbles and suffered two key injuries. Without a substantial running game, the Alabama linebackers will key on Kelly on the ground and the secondary will blanket the receivers. And don’t think for a second Nick Saban won’t have this team focused after losing the previous two. Alabama 38, Mississippi 24
#22 Oregon at Nebraska (Saturday 3:30 P.M.)
Line: Nebraska by 3
Steen: Dark horse Heisman candidate Royce Freeman should take Lincoln by storm if Oregon is going to win this tough road game. The Cornhuskers are unranked, and under the radar, but on both sides of the ball they have put together a solid team this year. Oregon isn’t as good as they have been in previous years, and is vulnerable in this game.
Nebraska QB Tommy Armstrong is talented but inconsistent, and the Cornhuskers will probably be able to stop Oregon for periods of the game. Still I expect Oregon to score too much and I don’t see Nebraska catching up, Armstrong is likely to make enough mistakes to give Oregon the edge. Oregon 42, Nebraska 28
Yesh: This game is huge for Mike Riley and Nebraska. The Cornhuskers were one of the most snakebitten teams in the country last year; they definitely don’t want that to happen again. We saw in the bowl game last year that Nebraska had some problems with UCLA’s speed on the edge. Oregon will have a huge advantage there, but Riley adjusted and locked the Bruins down in the second half; he can do the same to the Ducks in this game. This will be a chance at a signature win for the program to prove that it’s back. If Tommy Armstrong, Jr. can avoid making mistakes–a big if–then this could be a statement game. Nebraska 41, Oregon 35
John: Nebraska head coach Mike Riley is all too familiar with his Saturday opponent. Having previously been at Oregon State, he faced Oregon a total of 14 times in the famed “Civil War” rivalry. Now the Ducks come to Lincoln with the Huskers having a chance to notch the program’s biggest victory since shocking Michigan State last year.
To pull it off, quarterback Tommy Armstrong will have to turn in a consistent performance that’s as mistake free as possible. Husker fans know all too well that it’s hard to tell which Armstrong’s going to show up. But if his good side emerges Saturday afternoon, Nebraska has a chance. This is especially true considering Oregon’s defense hasn’t exactly impressed against inferior opponents over their first two games.
Ultimately, this game will come down to Nebraska limiting big plays. It’s something their defense struggled with last season. That could be a problem against a high-octane Oregon offense that’s currently top ten nationally in plays from scrimmage of 20 yards or greater. But if the “Blackshirts” can generate a pass rush against a relatively inexperienced quarterback in Dakota Prukop, watch out. Nebraska 38, Oregon 34
Mike: Nebraska is quietly making a run at the Top 25. After several years of adjustment to the Big Ten, is this the year that they finally get back to the national stage? Mike Riley is looking for his signature win in Lincoln and Tommy Armstrong promises to be the next great Nebraska running quarterback. Oregon also has quiet hopes at the PAC-12 Championship. The PAC-12 has had a rough go in the first two weeks. Can the Ducks represent the West Coast in the heartland? Riley’s experience facing the Quack Attack is the edge as the Huskers pull out a close one. Nebraska 41, Oregon 35
#12 Michigan State at #18 Notre Dame (Saturday 7:30 P.M.)
Line: Notre Dame by 8
Steen: Notre Dame is a bit deflated since losing to Texas, but the Irish could still claw their way back into the national discussion. To do that, they have to get past a Michigan State team that isn’t as good as the one last year, but still solid on both sides of the ball, and thrives on a pro style, run heavy approach. Notre Dame has a better offense, but their defense is a question mark for me, and Mark Dantonio’s team always find a way to sneak wins in games like this regardless of the talent discrepancy. I’m going with Michigan State. Michigan State 24, Notre Dame 21
Yesh: I am honestly not sold on either Notre Dame or Michigan State this year. The Spartans couldn’t do anything on offense in Week 1 and the defense was not quite up to what I expect from Mark Dantonio. Notre Dame looked relatively mediocre against Texas in Week 1 and wasn’t actually tested against Nevada in Week 2. I don’t know how to pick this game, but I do think that it will be closer than two scores. Michigan State 31, Notre Dame 30
Mike: Michigan State had a lackluster opening game against Furman. Of course, a lot of teams had weak performances in Week 1. Notre Dame went on the road and battled a very good Texas team. The Spartans are trying to replace Connor Cook while the Irish look like they’ve found their answer at Quarterback. Much like Florida State, Notre Dame is already a known commodity this season. I like the battle-tested team at home, especially since they’re more talented and are the better team. Look for the Spartans to come back on their shields. Notre Dame 38, Michigan State 21
#3 Ohio State at #14 Oklahoma (Saturday 7:30 P.M.)
Line: Ohio State by 2
Steen: Two loaded teams that are also historical powerhouses, this is the second biggest game of the season for Ohio State, and they can’t sleep on an Oklahoma team that lost to Houston and set themselves back. A win for OU would put them back in the national discussion, and this is a Sooner team that can put up points.
Ohio State is more well rounded though, and on top of scoring, I think the Bucks will get the stops they need to pull out a tough win. Ohio State 38, Oklahoma 31
Yesh: This was one of the premier match-ups before the season started, but after two weeks it’s not quite looking that way. Oklahoma got manhandled by Houston, which Tom Herman is basically building into Urban Meyer’s Ohio State, and the Buckeyes look absolutely dominant on defense. The offense has struggled a little at times, but it’s too explosive to be contained for 60 minutes. Ohio State 42, Oklahoma 21
John: Perhaps the biggest marquee game on Saturday night takes place in Norman, OK when Ohio State and Oklahoma face off in a clash of college football blue bloods. The two programs have a combined 15 national titles between the two of them in the AP era.
This game pits two quarterbacks expected to be in the thick of the Heisman Trophy discussion. Despite losing to Houston, Baker Mayfield has the sixth-highest passer rating in FBS (192.69). Meanwhile, J.T. Barrett already has a combined nine touchdowns in two games (six passing, three rushing).
Ultimately, this game will come down to which defense can make the most big plays. Ohio State appears to have the edge in that department, having forced nine turnovers compared to the Sooners two. OSU’s sophomore safety Malik Hooker already has three interceptions by himself. If him and the rest of the Buckeye secondary can force Mayfield into mistakes, it may tilt the game in the road team’s favor. Ohio State 27, Oklahoma 17
Mike: Hardest game of the week for me. I’ve went with the tested teams in Florida State and Notre Dame, but I’m going to go with Ohio State here. Both sides of the ball are clicking and this is the type of team that Urban Meyer excels with on the national stage. The Sooners have talent, especially on the offense, but they couldn’t get in rhythm against the Houston defense. The Buckeyes will be better. The disappointment returns to Norman. Ohio State 35, Oklahoma 24
USC at #7 Stanford (Saturday 8:00 P.M.)
Line: Stanford by 8.5
Steen: Stanford has a solid running game and a great defense, USC is full of talent, but consistently fails tos how up in big games. Traveling to Stanford is no easy day, and I don’t trust the Trojans after they were rocked by USC. Stanford are the favorites. Stanford 24, USC 10
Yesh: The only reason that this game might be close is that Stanford generally doesn’t put up a lot of points. Then again, the Cardinal did just that against USC last year. New coach Todd Helton hasn’t won a big game yet. Stanford is no Alabama, but the Cardinal are close enough–in terms of style and talent level–to have me expect a blowout here. Stanford 34, USC 13
John: Despite having a 30-61-3 record all-time against USC, Stanford has dominated recently. The Cardinal have won seven of the last ten meetings, including both games last year. The two met in week three of the regular season (41-31 Stanford) as well as the Pac-12 title game (41-22 Stanford).
It would appear as if the Trojans are at a disadvantage in 2016 as well. That notion became more pronounced in the wake of getting throttled 52-6 by Alabama in the season-opener. There may indeed be growing pains at the quarterback position as Max Browne adjusts to the starter role.
Head coach Clay Helton has wanted to incorporate more power running than in previous iterations of the Trojans. In that sense, he wants his offense to mimic that of Stanford’s. But there are few teams who have a player as dynamic as Christian McCaffery. And it remains to be seen if USC’s defense will able to contain him considering their performance against Bama. Stanford 31, Southern Cal 17
Mike: I have to think USC has far more talent on their team than their opening week loss to Alabama showed. And I wasn’t overly impressed with the Cardinal victory against Kanas State. There’s still hope that this Trojan team isn’t just a collection of talented players – that it might just be a team that can find a way to play together. Stanford still needs to answer questions at quarterback and at every other position except whatever position Christian McCaffrey lines up at. USC was beaten badly, but you know how I like my battle-tested teams. This is my upset pick of the week. Trojans go north and chop down the Cardinal. USC 27, Stanford 24
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