Hawaii Bowl Prediction: California and Hawaii Face Off on Christmas Eve

It’s the holiday season, and that means the college football postseason is here!

On Christmas Eve, two teams from the ACC and Mountain West face off in Honolulu, Hawaii. The California Golden Bears and Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are set to face off in one of the more intriguing matchups of the bowl season. Let’s take a look at the matchup between the two schools!

California has had an interesting season, finishing 7-5 on the season, giving the program its first winning season since 2019. True freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele led the Golden Bears to two wins over ranked opponents, including knocking Louisville and SMU out of the conference title race. Despite that, head coach Justin Wilcox was fired after Cal lost 31-10 to Stanford on Nov. 22.

To add to the storylines, Nick Rolovich, the former Hawaii standout quarterback, will coach the Golden Bears in the Hawaii Bowl, while the next head coach, Tosh Lupoi, will coach the Oregon Ducks’ defense until the season is over.

As mentioned above, Sagapolutele has been a standout success for the Golden Bears, passing for 3,117 yards, completing 63 percent of his passes, with 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Despite being a potential name to be in the Transfer Portal, the freshman has announced his commitment to stay in Berkeley for the 2026 season.

Cal has some weapons to go along with the freshman quarterback to keep an eye on in the bowl game. In the backfield, junior running back Kendrick Raphael led the Golden Bears in rushing yards in 2025 with 853 yards on 215 carries and 12 touchdowns. Sagapolutele’s top targets were senior receivers Jacob De Jesus and Trond Grizzell. De Jesus led the team in all receiving categories with 99 catches for 892 yards and five touchdowns. Grizzell wasn’t too far behind him with 47 catches for 690 yards and a touchdown.

As you could probably tell, the Golden Bears’ offense is carried by the passing attack with Sagapolutele, and it should be fun to watch against Hawaii.

Just like the Golden Bears, Hawaii had one of its best seasons in a while. In fact, it’s the Rainbow Warriors’ first time in a bowl game since 2020. Coach and all-time Hawaii quarterback Timmy Chang have the Rainbow Warriors playing some of their best football right now, especially at home.

Hawaii sits with an 8-4 record on the season, including a 6-1 record at home. The Rainbow Warriors struggled on the road, only winning two games all season. Lucky for them, they get to play at home against the Golden Bears.

Hawaii has the firepower to face off against the high-powered Cal offense. The Rainbow Warriors’ offense is led by redshirt freshman quarterback Micah Alejado, who passed for 2,622 yards, 19 touchdowns, and only nine interceptions. Unfortunately for Hawaii, top receiver Jackson Harris intends to enter the portal. That leaves junior Pofele Ashlock as the No. 1 receiver for the Rainbow Warriors.

Ashlock finished the 2025 regular season with 62 catches for 704 yards and six touchdowns. The junior should be able to handle the No. 1 duties, as he had a few standout games, especially against Utah State. Ashlock finished with eight catches for 113 yards and three touchdowns in that game.

Hawaii’s rushing attack hasn’t been anything spectacular, but it has been good at home. Senior running back Landon Sims led the way with 113 carries for 523 yards and three touchdowns. Right behind Sims is junior Cam Barfield, who had 75 carries for 361 yards and four touchdowns.

Despite all of the standouts on the offensive side of the ball, the top player on this team is the kicker. 26-year old senior Kansei Matsuzawa has been the story of the season. Matsuzama taught himself to kick through YouTube. Fast-forward, the 26-year-old is the Rainbow Warriors’ first AP Consensus All-American, making 25 of 26 field goals with a long of 52 yards.

These two teams have fantastic offenses, and this is projecting out to be a shootout. Sagapolutele is poised to become the country’s next superstar quarterback, and he definitely has the chops to do so. He will get a chance to have a standout performance back at home against the Rainbow Warriors. Despite that, Hawaii has been the hardest team to beat on the road, and it seems that its defense shows up at home as well. This game will be decided by whoever has the ball last, and the Rainbow Warriors take advantage of that, hitting a couple of big field goals down the final stretch.

Spread: -1.5 California with -102 odds to win.