Six teams have secured bowl eligibility, and a host of others can snag win number six this weekend. Here is my forecast for the post season with my LWOS Bowl Projections Week 6.
College Football Playoff
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
CFP Semifinal
#1 Alabama vs. #4 Washington
Fiesta Bowl
CFP Semifinal
#2 Ohio State vs. #3 Clemson
National Championship Game
#1 Alabama vs. #2 Ohio State
No changes up top once again. If Alabama wins the SEC as an undefeated or one-loss team, they are in, probably as the one or two seed.
The winner of Ohio State versus Michigan will be on the fast-track for the top two seeds.
Clemson can likely afford a loss as well, provided it’s not to a far inferior team, or a late season ACC title game loss. Losing early is the preferred method if one has to lose, as there is time to get back in the good graces of the CFP Committee.
Washington’s schedule is setting up for a 12 – 0 finish before the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Pac-12 South seems like a battle royal in which the winner won’t have much fight left for the championship match. I’ve got USC sneaking out of the division, but don’t count out UCLA, or Utah.
New Years Six Bowls
Rose Bowl
Michigan vs. USC
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Baylor vs. Texas A&M
Capital One Orange Bowl
Louisville vs. Wisconsin
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
Tennessee vs. Boise State
As mentioned above, I have USC coming out of the Pac-12 South, with possibly four losses. The Rose Bowl would love to have the Trojans play across town and fill the stadium to the brim. If it is Michigan taking Big Ten Champion Ohio State’s place, there may not be a team in the Pac-12 that can touch them.
I know Colorado hung in with Michigan in Ann Arbor longer than they should have (Lost 45 – 28), but outside of the Washington schools, the Pac-12 isn’t inspiring confidence.
Baylor and Oklahoma will duke it out for the Big 12 title, and as of now I’ll put the Bears in to take on SEC replacement Texas A&M. The Aggies beat the Tennessee Volunteers last weekend to move into second in the pecking order behind Alabama.
The biggest change in the New Year’s Six lineup was the exit of Houston from my picks. Their replacement, Boise State, faces their toughest tests versus BYU, at Wyoming, and at Air Force to close out the season. The Broncos will be favored in all of their remaining games.
A Mountain West title game versus (likely) San Diego State will be Boise State’s reward if they can get to 12 – 0. While I still see Houston winning the American Athletic Conference, I give Boise State the edge to be the highest ranked Group of Five conference champion.
Keep an eye on Western Michigan, South Florida, and San Diego State as other teams in the running to win their Group of Five conference, and make an appearance in the New Year’s Six Bowls.
Bowl Season Projections
Outback Bowl
Big Ten vs. SEC
Penn State vs. Missouri
TaxSlayer Bowl
SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten/Notre Dame
Ole Miss vs. Miami (FL)
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten/Notre Dame
Florida vs. Nebraska
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC
Maryland vs. Arkansas
Hyundai Sun Bowl
ACC/Notre Dame vs. Pac-12
Florida State vs. Utah
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Big 12 vs. SEC
West Virginia vs. Georgia
Arizona Bowl
Mountain West vs. Sun Belt
Nevada vs. UL-Lafayette
Valero Alamo Bowl
Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Oklahoma vs. UCLA
Belk Bowl
ACC vs. SEC
UNC vs. Auburn
Birmingham Bowl
AAC vs. SEC
Tulsa vs. California *
AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl
Big 12 vs. SEC
Texas vs. LSU
Foster Farms Bowl
Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Iowa vs. Colorado
Russell Athletic Bowl
ACC vs. Big 12
Virginia Tech vs. Oklahoma State
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
ACC/Notre Dame vs. Big Ten
Pitt vs. Michigan State
Cactus Bowl
Big 12 vs. Pac-12
TCU vs. Arizona State
Holiday Bowl
Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Indiana vs. Washington State
Military Bowl
AAC vs. ACC
UConn vs. NC State
Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl
Big Ten vs. C-USA
Texas Tech * vs. Western Kentucky
Camping World Independence Bowl
ACC vs. SEC
Georgia Tech vs. South Carolina
Quick Lane Bowl
ACC vs. Big Ten
Temple * vs. Northwestern
St. Petersburg Bowl
AAC vs. ACC
USF vs. Wake Forest
Hawai’i Bowl
C-USA vs. Mountain West
Army * vs. Hawai’i
Dollar General Bowl
MAC vs. Sun Belt
Akron vs. Georgia Southern
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
AAC vs. Big 12
Navy vs. Kansas State
Popeyes Bahamas Bowl
C-USA vs. MAC
Southern Mississippi vs. Ohio
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
MAC vs. Mountain West
Toledo vs. Wyoming
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
BYU vs. Mountain West
BYU vs. Air Force
Marmot Boca Raton Bowl
AAC vs. C-USA
Cincinnati vs. Old Dominion
Miami Beach Bowl
AAC vs. MAC
Houston vs. Western Michigan
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
C-USA vs. Sun Belt
Middle Tennessee vs. Appalachian State
AutoNation Cure Bowl
AAC vs. Sun Belt
Memphis vs. Troy
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
MAC vs. Sun Belt
Central Michigan vs. South Alabama
Las Vegas Bowl
Mountain West vs. Pac-12
San Diego State vs. Stanford
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
C-USA vs. Mountain West
Louisiana Tech vs. Nevada
Explanation
Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, Western Michigan, Texas A&M, and Washington are already bowl eligible.
The biggest losers of Week 6 were Stanford and Notre Dame. Ironically, those two play this weekend in South Bend to see who has a realistic shot at making a bowl. The Irish sit at 2 – 4 on the season with, at most, three winnable games remaining.
This includes the game versus Stanford. If Notre Dame beats the Cardinal, and the Service Academies, they will likely finish 5 – 7 and need an APR (Academic Progress Rate) bailout if there aren’t enough bowl eligible teams.
Stanford is 3 – 2 on the year, and has lost all hope for a conference championship. Two weeks ago, it was Stanford and Washington as the favorites in the Pac-12. Two blowouts later, and the Cardinal have dropped down to the Las Vegas Bowl. Given the state of Stanford football, any bowl game will seem like a gift.
* = Replacement team
