There was very little shake-up with this week’s College Football Playoff rankings. Most of the top 10 took care of business, but a few Big Ten teams saw their odds jump. With the second week of the official rankings, the Big Ten has six teams ranked, still behind the SEC’s eight. However, the top two spots still belong to the Big Ten.
Last week, we saw Washington and Northwestern’s cases formally close with losses to Wisconsin and Oregon, respectively. This week, three teams are in the field, with two teams just outside. Two more teams still have a shot to make a run, but one more loss would eliminate them.
The Big Ten College Football Playoff Picture: Week 12
Ticket Punched?
#2 Indiana
Current odds (via Kelley Ford): >99%
As the number-two team in the nation with a 10-0 mark, Indiana has seemingly punched its ticket to the dance. We wouldn’t go so far as to say that just yet, but the Hoosiers are a win away. Imagine if Indinaa dropped each of its final two games against Wisconsin and Purdue. Would the committee be able to overlook that despite Indiana’s 10-0 start? Indiana doesn’t have the pull, nor would it have the benefit of the doubt.
However, losing to Wisconsin this week and then Purdue in two weeks is incredibly unlikely. The Hoosiers avoided disaster against a spiraling Penn State team thanks to the play of the year. Fernando Mendoza is Last Word on College Football’s Heisman favorite, and his Hoosiers are playing well.
Indiana would clinch a spot in the CFP with a win this week. The Hoosiers would also clinch a spot in the Big Ten Championship with a win and losses by Oregon, USC, and Michigan. With a bye next week, the Hoosiers could benefit from losses by those three either this week or next.
This week: vs Wisconsin (3-6, 1-5)
Near-Lock
#1 Ohio State
Current odds: >99%
The Buckeyes have that caché Indiana lacks when it comes to the benefit of the doubt. While the Buckeyes might miss out if they dropped all three games remaining, they are likely one win away from clinching as well.
According to Vegas, Julian Sayin is the Heisman favorite. It makes sense, considering he’s played at a high level all year, but also because he’s the quarterback for the best team in the nation. Last week, the Buckeyes methodically squeezed the life out of Purdue en route to a 34-10 win. On the surface, it didn’t look impressive. Digging deeper, the Buckeyes smothered Purdue, held the ball for nearly three full quarters of action, and only allowed a touchdown in garbage time.
Regardless, Ohio State’s defense is widely considered the best in the country. The offense is methodical and has yet to show that second and third gear. The Buckeyes have an underrated test in UCLA this week.
At 9-0 and 6-0 in the Big Ten, there won’t be any tickets punched to Indianapolis this week. However, losses by those aforementioned three would make things easier when Rutgers comes to town next week.
This week: vs. UCLA (3-6, 3-3)
Just Win
#8 Oregon
Current odds: 92%
Oregon has the toughest road among the contending Big Ten teams. While this weekend might not be much, the Ducks get USC and Washington to close the season. The Huskies were eliminated, so they get to play the role of spoiler in the final week of the season.
Last week, Oregon nearly fell victim to the “Kinnick at night” dark magic. The Ducks kicked a game-winning field goal with three seconds to go to escape with an 18-16 win.
Iowa is still alive in the CFP discussion and was only penalized one spot after taking a top-10 team to the brink. Oregon, meanwhile, has to get back on track. There isn’t much you can take away from that game on offense due to the conditions, but you’d expect Dante Moore to play better. Luckily, Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison, and Dierre Hill Jr. stepped up in the ground game.
This week: vs Minnesota (6-3, 4-2)
Work to Do
#17 USC
Current odds: 75%
As the 17th-ranked team in the country, USC is still sitting outside the party. The Trojans have one good win – a 31-13 victory over number 18 Michigan – but they fell to Notre Dame and Illinois. While losing to a team ranked higher and expected to get back to the CFP, losing to Illinois, which was fresh off a 62-10 beating, is not great for optics.
USC eliminated Northwestern’s incredibly slim hopes last week with a commanding 38-17 win. Makai Lemon continued his breakout campaign, walk-on running back King Miller had another 100-yard game, and the defense forced a pair of turnovers.
The Trojans have three games left, and two will dictate their season. This week, Iowa comes to town. Next week, they take a trip to Oregon. If USC wants to stay in the conversation, it will have to win out.
This week: vs #21 Iowa (6-3, 4-2)
#18 Michigan
Current odds: 73%
Speaking of teams that just need to win, Michigan was idle last week. Despite not playing, the Wolverines’ odds jumped from 72% to 73% and they moved up in the rankings by three spots!
The path for Michigan continues to be win out and you’re in. This week, the Wolverines get Northwestern. Next week, Maryland stands in the way. With wins over two overmatched teams, Michigan would host Ohio State with the CFP on the line. If Michigan wins its fifth in a row over Ohio State, the CFP would await. While that wouldn’t knock the Buckeyes out of contention for the CFP or Big Ten, it’s still a win over Ohio State.
This week: at Northwestern (5-4, 3-3)
Long Shots
Illinois
Current odds: 49%
Somehow, with three losses, the Fighting Illini have a shot, according to Ford. We disagree, but we aren’t the ones setting those odds. Illinois has that win over USC as the crowning achievement on the resumé. Of course, if Illinois wins out and Duke manages to win the ACC, we could revisit that conversation.
Regardless, those losses to Indiana, Ohio State, and Washington loom large.
Illinois gets Maryland this week and will close the year with Wisconsin and Northwestern. It’s very likely the Illini finish the year 9-3. The Big Ten doesn’t get the privilege of throwing fits when it has three-loss teams left out, but Illinois will likely just be outside the picture when it’s all said and done.
Naturally, a fourth loss would eliminate Illinois.
This week: vs. Maryland (4-5, 1-5)
#21 Iowa
Current odds: 16%
Finally, Iowa very nearly threw a massive wrench into the Big Ten College Football Playoff picture. If the Hawkeyes had upset Oregon, its odds would have skyrocketed, whereas Oregon would have dropped out of the bracket. For the Big Ten, it’s good Oregon won because sending only two teams would not help the narratives that the Big Ten is top-heavy.
Regardless, Iowa is going to have to win out and pray for chaos. Again, the AP Poll voters didn’t respect Iowa as much as the CFP committee. Even then, while the Big Ten doesn’t have the #QualityLosses metric, Iowa has three not-so-bad losses. Oregon won by two, Indiana won by five (and only scored 20), and Iowa State won by three.
If ifs and buts were candies and nuts, we’d all have a merry Christmas. However, if Iowa had won one, two, or all three, we would be looking at this team very differently.
The path to the CFP starts at USC this weekend. Winning that one will open things up, but it will still be a steep climb to get in.
This week: at #17 USC (7-2, 5-1)
Eliminated
- Minnesota
- Nebraska
- Washington
- Northwestern
- UCLA
- Rutgers
- Maryland
- Wisconsin
- Michigan State
- Penn State
- Purdue
Main Image: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images
