Ole Miss vs The Citadel: An Easy Week for the Rebels?

The Ole Miss Rebels are sitting at 8-1, and have a few big matchups left this season. To close the year, they host Florida, and then travel to Mississippi State for the Egg Bowl, with a bye week in between. However, that stretch starts next weekend. First, they have business to attend to. Though it should be slightly easier. On a day that features a variety of decent matchups, Ole Miss vs The Citadel isn’t likely to be one of them.

This will only be the second meeting between the two programs, with the first coming in 2005. The Rebels won that matchup 27-7. Now, they meet again. And while the end result will likely be the same, there are a few factors that could dictate just what kind of game it ends up being.

Can the Rebels avoid looking ahead to Florida and focus on taking care of the Bulldogs? Or does The Citadel come into Oxford and make a close game out of what should be a blowout?

In short, it won’t be easy. They’re overpowered at every position on the field. But we’ve seen stranger things happen; that’s why they play the games.

For The Citadel, they’ve played two teams that are currently ranked in the FCS top-25. In both, the score was the same.

The Bulldogs fell to North Dakota State and Mercer by a score of 38-0. If they failed to score against the best competition they’ve seen so far, it’s safe to assume they may find similar struggles against the Rebels. And while the Ole Miss defense has had its ups and downs this year, it’s certainly the best defense the Bulldogs will have seen. If there is a bright side, it’s that their offense succeeds where the Rebel defense struggles. That is on the ground. For the season, they’re averaging 225 rushing yards per game. If The Citadel can find a bit of success in the rushing game, it may be able to find a way to shorten the game and sneak some points up on the board along the way.

As for the Bulldogs’ defense, they’re likely in for a long day. They’re giving up 25 points per game to FCS competition, and, as mentioned earlier, that number increases significantly against their better opponents. Taking on a Rebel offense that is in the top half of most offensive categories in the country is going to be a problem. We can assume Ole Miss is going to move the ball. The question will be whether The Citadel can force a few turnovers to keep the game close.

For the Rebels, the answer is simple. Don’t get caught looking ahead. From a matchup standpoint, this game could easily be over by halftime. But we said the same thing when Ole Miss took on Washington State. In that one, the Cougars almost pulled off the massive upset. If Ole Miss stays focused, this game won’t even be close.

It starts with the offense. More specifically, quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. When he first took over for Austin Simmons, he looked like a Heisman candidate. However, since then, put bluntly, he’s struggled. While the numbers still look good, his play has dipped. We know he can make plays with his legs when he escapes the pocket, but his accuracy through the air has been a problem. While it likely won’t be a huge factor against The Citadel, it could become a problem down the road if it continues. The hope for the Rebels is that he uses this week to get back on track in the passing game.

As for the Rebel defense, simply avoiding blown coverages is key. Over the past two weeks, they’ve looked good overall. But they have had too many problems in the secondary. The good news is that with the Bulldogs wanting to run the ball, that shouldn’t be a huge issue. And with the size and talent differential, the Ole Miss defensive line, featuring Kam Franklin and Zxavian Harris, should be able to control the line of scrimmage and avoid giving up too many long runs. Given the matchup, the defense should be able to largely limit just about anything The Citadel looks to do on the offensive end.

Barring disaster on the Ole Miss sideline, they’re going to win this one. The question is by how many. And that’s largely dependent on how focused they are. Given the near-disaster they had against Washington State, expect them to come out more focused.

That being said, this could be such a lopsided affair that Lane Kiffin and the Rebels decide to take their foot off the gas just a bit in the second half, instead of running up the score too much. In the end, it likely ends up being somewhere in between. Expect Ole Miss to jump out to a huge lead early and then cruise the rest of the way to an easy victory. But there’s a good chance it won’t be as bad as it ultimately could be.