Fanduel’s 2025 Heisman odds are quarterback-heavy with a mixture of veterans like Cade Klubnik and rising stars like Arch Manning. Garrett Nussmeier is currently a slight favorite to win, but how much production is enough for him to become LSU’s next Heisman winner?
Several factors play into Heisman odds. Quarterbacks have an inherent advantage at the most visible position, but team success is also critical. It doesn’t hurt to play for a school with a big brand. The race is not solely dependent on a player’s production, but also on what other players achieve.
Of course, Nussmeier can only control what he does on the field. It’s reasonable to expect his raw numbers to improve after a year of experience. The tricky part is determining how much growth is realistic against a highly competitive schedule.
LSU’s Next Heisman Winner
The Standard is Set
If we’re projecting the growth of an LSU Heisman candidate at quarterback, what better gauge could we use than LSU Heisman-winning quarterbacks? Both Jayden Daniels and Joe Burrow made significant jumps in their second year as starters at LSU. Daniels is such a different animal as a runner that we’ll use total yards to compare for the sake of this exercise.
Daniels 2022 – 3,798 total yards
Daniels 2023 – 4,946 total yards
Burrow 2018 – 3,293 total yards
Burrow 2019 – 6,039 total yards
So Daniels improved his production by roughly 30% and sprinkled in a few “Heisman moment” plays against Florida where he looked like the Tecmo Bowl version of Bo Jackson. Here’s where it gets silly – Burrow increased his total yardage by 83%, nearly doubling his first year’s stats.
Fortunately for Nussmeier, we won’t hold him to that standard. Let’s say he can increase his production by a measly 30%. That would put him over 5,000 yards in 2025, more than any quarterback in the nation had last year. It feels odd to say, but 5,000 yards isn’t a stretch considering the weapons the Tigers have added. The biggest threat to this increase could actually help the team – a more effective running game.
His 29 touchdowns were good for 10th in the country, so climbing to the mid-30s would definitely put him in elite company. More importantly, he must improve on his 12 interceptions as a first-year starter. Cutting that number in half would be nice, but getting down to eight is more realistic for his style of play.
Team Success
Voters tend to lean towards winners, but they’ve shown an appreciation for greatness in recent years. LSU’s record was a popular talking point for Daniels’ naysayers in 2023, but his dominance was inarguable. Travis Hunter did what no other player has in recent history, so he was forgiven for not being in playoff contention.
Both Daniels and Hunter had eye-popping athleticism that jumped off the screen and embedded itself in the consciousness of voters. For that reason, we don’t think an 8-4 regular season will be good enough for Nussmeier to win the Heisman. The Tigers need to be a 10-2 playoff team. This requires more defensive stops and fewer interceptions, only one of which Nussmeier can control.
We also must consider that the Tigers have not been ready to play in season openers in the Brian Kelly era. Clemson is up first in 2025, so if LSU loses there’s not much wiggle room for losses in conference play to make the playoffs. Nussmeier’s Heisman chances could take a hit after only one week of play.
Sizing Up the Competition
Manning is on Nussmeier’s heels as the second most likely Heisman winner, and he’s even first on some services like MGM. Manning meets all the prerequisites with the name recognition, the brand of his team, and the projected team success. However, there’s still the question of how Manning will perform when given the reins full-time. The tools are there, but there is no substitute for experience (Just ask another hopeful in Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava). The known part of this equation is he’ll have great offensive coaching and perimeter pieces in his corner.
Nussmeier’s Week One matchup with Clemson is important for LSU’s record, but it will feature two Heisman hopefuls going head-to-head. Clemson’s Klubnik is entering his senior season and hoping to elevate his Tigers back to elite status. This will be a high-profile game with the college football world watching. The results will have a lasting effect on public perception of the quarterbacks. Even if both candidates manage to stay in the Heisman conversation throughout the season, then voters will surely come back to this game to make comparisons.
No Heisman conversation would be complete without acknowledging the greatness of Jeremiah Smith. Ohio State will be starting a new quarterback. It’s only natural that he would throw it in Smith’s direction when things look dire. The sophomore has no discernable weaknesses in his game and will be heavily targeted even in a deep wide receiver room.
As always, there will be players who seemingly come out of nowhere to propel themselves into the discussion. Burrow’s odds were 200-1 in the preseason of 2019. For now, these guys make up the biggest obstacles for who could potentially be LSU’s next Heisman winner.
Main Image: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images
