Importance of LSU vs. Florida
LSU will welcome its fierce rival, the Florida Gators, to Baton Rouge on Saturday. The Tigers’ 6-3 record shouldn’t be shocking, considering their schedule. The element of surprise emerges in the reality that LSU has three losses with the best offense in the country. Florida is also reeling after a home loss to hapless Arkansas. The upcoming meeting in this rivalry is a pivotal game for LSU and Florida.
These programs mirror each other in several ways. Both have multiple national championships in the 2000’s, countless present NFL players, and head coaches in their second year. From a distance, it seems like LSU is further along with its new regime, and Florida’s Billy Napier is on the hot seat.
The harsh reality for LSU fans is that both teams will have the same record if Florida wins Saturday. Napier’s top three 2024 recruiting class and significant buyout likely buy him another year. It appears that LSU currently has the better team (14-point favorites), but the gap between the two programs might not be as big as it seems. Fair or not, both fanbases will use this game as a measuring stick for their new coaches.
The Florida Offense
Florida entered the season with Wisconsin transfer quarterback, Graham Mertz. He was serviceable in Madison, but this was not a wildly hyped commitment. The ideal situation would be for the Gators to lean on their talented running backs to avoid complete dependency on Mertz. The Florida offensive line has not been able to create enough space for running backs Trevor Etienne and Montrell Jackson. The importance of rushing success is apparent, as the Gators are 1-4 against Power Five opponents when they don’t run for over 150 yards. Stopping the Florida rushing attack will be an integral part of LSU’s defensive game plan.
Florida has legitimate threats on the outside in receivers Ricky Pearsall and Eugene Wilson. Pearsall was the established number-one option coming into the season. Wilson has come into his own in his freshman year, including an impressive 11-catch effort against Georgia. It
Florida’s Defensive Struggles
Florida has more pressing issues on the defensive side of the ball, particularly when it comes to stopping the run. The Gators gave up 171 rushing yards to Georgia, 226 to Arkansas, and 329 to Kentucky. To make matters worse, they lost their best linebacker, Shemar James, to injury for the rest of the season. The Florida defense will need to be drastically better against the run for the Gators to be competitive in this game.
Durable Daniels
The same quarterback that some fans inexplicably wanted to be benched before the season had fans waiting for injury updates at the edge of their seat this week. Brian Kelly gave fans the news they’d been waiting for on Thursday.
“Jayden Daniels practiced again today, so he will most likely pass the protocol. I would say he’s probable for Saturday,” said Kelly.
Daniels and the LSU offense knew they would have to be perfect to pull off the upset against Alabama, and his play was brilliant before getting knocked out of the game. Although Daniels won’t reach the team goals he had in mind before the season, there are personal achievements still in play. Even after the early exit against Alabama, Daniels still leads the country in total offense. Daniels had 219 yards passing and 163 yards rushing in three quarters of play against Alabama. Those numbers should put him in play for the Heisman and a favorite for the Davey O’Brien Award.
Disconcerting Defense
The LSU defense desperately needs to show signs of improvement on Saturday. More importantly, Matt House needs to show signs of improvement to keep his job. LSU’s roster can’t change in the middle of the season, so nobody expected the defense to morph into a juggernaut this year. However, House’s impressive 2022 results led people to believe that there would be adjustments. Fans and former players expected Harold Perkins to be impactful. Analysts expected creative schemes to make up for personnel deficiencies. Jalen Milroe ran wild against LSU, and it looked as though the staff was ok with that.
The Gators will surely score, just as every other team with a pulse has scored on LSU this year. It will be interesting to see how the Tiger defense responds if and when Florida has offensive success. House should probably consider himself on trial; Florida and Texas A&M could be his last two opportunities to plead his case.
Realistic Result
LSU has a chance to win 10 games for two years in a row after finishing below .500 in 2021, so this is a critical game. Only one LSU offense in the history of the institution has outperformed this one. The Tigers can’t win a championship this year, but a 10-3 season is a step in the right direction. Anything can happen in a rivalry game, but it’s unlikely that Florida will be able to put up enough points to get the win in Baton Rouge
