Welcome to the Week 11 SEC Preview as we enter November. The air is turning cool and crisp, and coaching seats are heating up across the Southeastern Conference. While fans in Athens and Tuscaloosa make plans for Atlanta, others strategize for the future. The coaching carousel has been relatively quiet in 2023 compared to recent seasons, with only two coaches, Pat Fitzgerald of Northwestern and Mel Tucker of Michigan State, no longer coaching their teams. Coaching salaries and buyouts are rising, with Gus Malzahn holding the current record for the largest buyout at $21.7 million after his dismissal from Auburn in December 2020. The way the 2023 season is shaping up, a new record holder may emerge. Here are three coaching seats that could change in the coming month.
Jimbo Fisher: Texas A&M
Buyout: $76.8 Million
Jeremy Foley, the former athletic director of the Florida Gators, once famously said, “What should be done eventually must be done immediately.” Currently, in College Station, Fisher is not delivering results. The Aggies are stuck, spinning their wheels, and falling further behind in the SEC West. Do not let the excuse of playing a backup quarterback deceive you. In Austin, the team is also using a backup quarterback, yet they managed to beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa and are currently holding the #7 spot in the College Football Playoff rankings.
- 2024: $67.55 million
- 2025: $58.2 million
- 2026: 48.75 million
- 2027: $39.2 million
Texas A&M is at risk of falling further behind, especially with Texas and Oklahoma arriving in 2024. The Aggies will set the record at some point when they dismiss Fisher. Aggies Athletic Director Ross Bjork may need to consult Foley for advice.
Prediction: Jimbo strikes it rich. A&M dismisses Jimbo in December and announces Joey McGuire as the new head coach.
Billy Napier Florida Gators
Buyout: $31.875 million
Napier replaced Dan Mullen to bring the Alabama/Georgia model to Gainesville. Napier expanded his staff and has elevated the Gators’ recruiting. Florida is currently ranked #3 in the class of 2024. On the field, the Gators have struggled. They were 6-7 in 2022 despite having the #3 overall pick in the NFL draft in quarterback Anthony Richardson. This year the Gators are 5-4, and with LSU, Missouri, and Florida State left on the schedule face the real possibility of missing a bowl. @SECMike had a great statistic to highlight Napier’s struggles in Gainesville. “With one more loss, Napier would be guaranteed to possess the fewest number of wins of any Florida head coach through two seasons on the job since Charley Pell went 8-14-1 between 1979-80.”
Prediction: Napier gets one more year. 2024 does him in. 11 Power 4 opponents, including Miami, UCF, and Florida State.
Zach Arnett Mississippi State
Buyout: $4.5 Million
Arnett stepped into a difficult situation last season. He replaced the legendary Mike Leach, who passed away unexpectedly shortly at the end of last season. Arnett rallied the team to an Outback Bowl victory and set out to make his mark on the program. He got rid of the Air Raid, opting for a more ground-and-pound attack. Hail State sits at 4-5 on the season, and its lone SEC win was a forgettable 7-3 win over Arkansas. Fans are starting to talk about a return of Mullen to Stark Vegas, but many may be losing faith in the youngest coach in the SEC. A relatively small buyout allows Athletic Director Zac Selmon to make his mark on a national coaching search.
Prediction: After losing to Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl, Selmon dismisses Arnett. In December, they hire GJ Kinne to bring the Air Raid back to Stark Vegas.
Week 11 Slate
All times are EST. The visiting team is listed first. Lines are current as of the time of publishing. Week 11 picks against the spread are in bold. Ch
| 🗓️ Date | ⏰ Time | Television | Matchup | 💰 Line | 💵 O/U |
| 11/11 | Noon | ESPN | No. 8 Alabama vs. Kentucky | ALA -10.5 | 47.5 |
| 11/11 | Noon | SECN | Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina | SC -13.5 | 58 |
| 11/11 | 3:30 P.M. | CBS | No. 13 Tennessee vs. No. 14 Missouri | TENN -1 | 58.5 |
| 11/11 | 4:00 P.M. | SECN | Auburn vs. Arkansas | ARK -3 | 49 |
| 11/11 | 7:00 P.M. | ESPN | No. 9 Ole Miss vs. No. Georgia | UGA -10.5 | 58.5 |
| 11/11 | 7:30 P.M. | SECN | Florida vs. No. 19 LSU | LSU -14 | 61.5 |
| 11/11 | 7:30 P.M. | ESPN 2 | Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M | TA&M -17.5 | 44.5 |
Week 11 SEC Preview
We have a bit of an abbreviated preview this week. This week, we’ll focus our SEC previews on teams ranked in the Top 25 of the College Football Playoff rankings.
No. 8 Alabama vs. Kentucky
Alabama took a big step last weekend, knocking off LSU at home. The Tide scored the final 21 points to secure their spot atop the SEC West. Tommy Rees finally gives Jalen Milroe the ability to use his legs to stress LSU’s defense further. Milroe threw for 219 yards, but his running ability was the difference. He led the Tide with 155 yards on the ground and four scores. Kentucky’s defense is not as strong as in years past and should enable Milore to have another big day.
Prediction: Alabama 38, Kentucky 17
No. 13 Tennessee vs. No. 14 Missouri
Missouri gave Georgia everything they could handle last week in Athens. The Tigers moved the ball up and down on Georgia and looked primed for the upset before two interceptions sealed the Tigers’ fate. Eli Drinkwitz has done a masterful job this season, taking his name off the hot seat and making Missouri a primary contender in the SEC East. Tiger’s standout receiver Luther Burden III is questionable for the game after hurting his ankle on Saturday. While Tennessee may not win the East this year, a win against Mizzou would secure them in second and position them for a second straight double-digit win. The Vols hung 66 in the game last year at Neyland. Expect this one to be closer.
Prediction: Mizzou 38, Tennessee 35
No. 9 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Georgia
Georgia has Lane Kiffin and the Rebels focus. Kiffin’s Monday press conference gives you great insights into how seriously he and Ole Miss are taking their opponent. Last week, Kiffin poked at Fisher and the Aggies. This week, it’s all business, sharing how beating Georgia at home “will be the hardest thing to pull off.” A win allows Georgia to lock up the SEC East and a third straight trip to Atlanta to play for the SEC Championship. Look for Ladd McConkey to continue to find the soft spots in Ole Miss’s defense and carry the Dawgs.
Prediction: Georgia 45, Ole Miss 28
Florida vs. No. 19 LSU
The Gators were embarrassed last weekend on homecoming to Arkansas. The Razorbacks came in struggling and, with a new offensive coordinator in toe, raced out to an early 14-0 lead. The Gators were left playing catch-up all day before eventually falling in overtime. The loss jeopardized the Gators ‘ opportunity to go to a bowl game or secure a winning record in either of Napier’s first two seasons. For LSU, all eyes will be on their quarterback situation. On Monday, Brian Kelly refrained from giving a definite answer regarding Daniels’ participation on Saturday. However, he did acknowledge that the quarterback has shown improvement. “I would consider him day-to-day; he’s going through the injury protocol, and he’s made improvements,” Daniels is playing at an elite level this season and is in contention for the Heisman despite the Tigers having multiple losses and no shot a national championship.
Prediction: LSU 38, Florida 24
