Scott Satterfield’s team got a much-needed and well-timed bye week this past week after dropping three in a row. His Cincinnati Bearcats are back in action on Saturday with a homecoming week match-up against the Iowa St. Cyclones. This will be the first-ever meeting between the new Big 12 foes.
It’s easy to say that this is the biggest game for Cincinnati to date. After the week off, players and fans had time to move past the three straight losses and get excited and as hopeful as possible going into the latter half of the season. It’s a pivotal game for the 2-4 Bearcats. This is a great chance to gain momentum and get the much-needed first Big 12 conference win. There won’t be a better opportunity than in front of a packed homecoming crowd at Noon in mid-October.
Let’s take a look at what it’ll take for Cincinnati to get it done and get a giant monkey off its back.
Iowa St.’s Season So Far
The Cyclones currently sit in a third-place tie in the conference standings with a 2-1 record in conference play, 3-3 overall. They’ve had some solid wins, and some tough losses through the first half of this season. In an in-state rivalry game in week two, the Cyclones fell to Iowa, 20-13. They followed that with a loss to top MAC contender, Ohio. A similar loss as Cincinnati’s to Miami on the same day back in week three. Iowa St. put up just seven points in that road affair.
Since conference play began, Iowa St. has played some good ball. It took down Oklahoma St by a touchdown, fell to the Big 12 leader Oklahoma in a 30-point blowout, then last week put a hurt on TCU winning 27-14. The Cyclones will look to move to 3-1 in conference play and break a tie with the three others they sit within the conference standings.
Assessing the Cyclone Offense
There isn’t a lot of explosiveness in the Iowa St. Offense. It ranks 94th in the country with 338 total yards per game. It’s 107th in points per game with just 20. The Cyclones are led by a first-year starter in Redshirt Freshman quarterback Rocco Becht. He’s played decently well on the year, throwing at least one touchdown in each game so far. He has 1,223 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, and five interceptions. Becht is a pocket passer and not much of a threat on the ground.
Becht’s biggest target comes in veteran wide receiver Jaylin Noel. He has 31 catches for 284 yards and two scores this season. The 5’10 target comes into the game on a streak of catching a pass in 25 straight games. He certainly is a security blanket and a reliable weapon for the young quarterback. Jayden Higgins is quite a threat as well. An EKU transfer after two great seasons there, Higgins has 266 yards and three touchdowns this year. He averages better than 15 yards a reception. The Cincinnati secondary led by Jordan Young, Bryon Threats, and Justin Harris looks to bounce back this week against an Iowa St. team that throws it 53% of the time for just 225 yards a game.
The Rushing Attack
The Iowa St. run game is led by Eli Sanders who has 43 carries for 211 yards on the year. He leads the team in all key rushing metrics despite missing two games. The Cyclones don’t run it a ton as they’re 111th in the country with 30.4 rushing attempts a game. They’re 93rd in the country with just 3.7 yards per carry. The strength and anchor of the Cincinnati defense in the front seven should be able to keep these trends true and force the Cyclones into the air.
How to Attack the Iowa St. Defense
The Cyclone defense is led by a couple of solid players in their secondary. Beau Freyler and Jeremiah Cooper are staples on the back end that are all over the field. Freyler is tied for fourth in the Big 12 with 45 tackles on the year. In their 3-3-5 base defense, Freyler and Cooper are two of the safeties. They have a lot of versatility to them as they’re the two leading tacklers on the team while having combined for seven of the 10 interceptions Iowa St has this year. The Cyclones are third in the country in interceptions on the year.
It’s safe to say that the strength of the Cyclones team is the back half. However, the rushing defense is not one to scoff at. They rank in the middle of the pack nationally in many run-stopping stats. 139 yards allowed per game, 4.1 yards per carry. Defensive end Tyler Onyedim has 24 tackles on the year. Linebacker Caleb Bacon has 24 and two sacks to add.
Keys to Victory for Cincinnati
Win the Turnover Battle
In Iowa St’s three wins this year, it’s dominated the turnover battle. The Cyclones turned over those three opponents eight total times while not giving it away once. They have a +8 turnover differential in wins this season, and -3 in losses. Bearcats quarterback Emory Jones could be better at taking care of the ball this season so far, and that is a crucial factor for Cincinnati to get a victory this weekend.
The Cincinnati defense should be able to shut down the run game early and force the Cyclones to have to throw it. Going against a young quarterback in Becht, Daniel Grzesiak, Dorian Jones, and Jack Dingle can come hot on some blitzes to panic and frustrate the inexperienced passer. This should force some errant throws and key opportunities for the Cincy secondary.
Establish the Run
Iowa St. could make it difficult for Jones and the air attack on Cincinnati. In an aspect of the offense that’s been somewhat inconsistent, it might be in the best interest to get Corey Kiner going and pound sand in this game. Kiner has over 400 yards on the year, Jones has 280 himself. They both rank in the top 15 in the Big 12 rankings. With a hopefully healthy Ryan Montgomery as well, the Bearcats should be able to find some success on the ground in this one. There shouldn’t be much doubt that Cincinnati can score with Iowa St. and compete in a shootout, but the Cyclones secondary has a knack for the ball and will make some plays given more and more opportunities. This one will likely be a slower, low-scoring match without a ton of big plays.
Outlook
Cincinnati comes in as a 5.5-point favorite in this one according to DraftKings. The Cats covered in week one at home with ease. Lost outright as favorites to Miami, then lost by 14 to Oklahoma when the line closed right around that number so it depends on what number you might’ve got in that one.
It’s homecoming weekend in Cincinnati and that comes with a prime opportunity to get in the win column in conference play. Scott Satterfield and his troops are well-rested and look to snap a three-game skid. It’ll be a fun environment in Nippert at Noon this weekend, the Cats should make homecoming weekend even better with a much-needed victory in this one.
