Clemson and the College Football Playoff
When the College Football Playoffs first started, it seemed almost a forgone conclusion every season Clemson would make the final four. From the 2015-16 to 2020-21 season the Tigers made the playoffs six straight times only missing the inaugural iteration. In the last two seasons though, Clemson has just missed out on the chance to compete for the FBS national championship. This has left many seeing the Tigers as a team on the outside looking in once again going into the 2023 season. That does not mean they can not do it though, and there might be a better chance they do it than most believe right now. To examine the Tigers’ chances of making the final four we’ll look at the main factors the committee uses for their rankings in season. These include on-field performance, strength of schedule, and head-to-head matchups.
Expected performance
Firstly, there has not been a team yet that has made the playoffs with two or more losses. With that said, there hasn’t been a Clemson football team that’s been expected to win less than 10 games in a long time. The same goes for the 2023 team as well. The team has seen a few changes, mostly on the offensive side, but still has many very productive returners. Everyone is talking about the matchup with Florida State, and rightfully so, as they might be the biggest challenge Clemson faces this season. There are quite a few good teams on the Tigers’ schedule though that could prove to be tough games as the season wears on.
Of course, there is Notre Dame who is always a tough opponent, and another program looking for a bounce-back season. But Dabo Swinney’s squad also can’t sleep on teams like Syracuse, Miami, NC State, South Carolina, UNC, or even the opening opponent Duke. These are all teams the Tigers should beat, but if they are not careful they could be on upset alert. Overall though this team should finish with 11 wins in the regular season. The chance to win all 12 is definitely there, but with two teams that could easily finish top 10 and plenty of others that could sneak into the top 25 running the table seems unlikely. Eleven wins are enough to make the four-team playoff especially if the Tigers win their second straight ACC championship.
Strength of Schedule
Strength of schedule always seems to be where the most debate among playoff contenders seems to come from. The season hasn’t even started yet and people are already having many conversations about Georgia’s schedule this year. Clemson has definitely gotten slack in years past about their schedule especially being in the ACC. Many people don’t look at the conference as highly as they might have in years past, feeling as though outside of Clemson many teams don’t appear very strong. Despite what some might say though, the ACC still has some very good programs and Clemson has to face many of them.
Three teams on the schedule for the Tigers are already ranked top 25 in the preseason coaches poll. These programs are (#8) Florida State, (#13) Notre Dame, and (#20) UNC. Florida State could actually be a team Clemson sees twice as they are favorites to make the ACC Championship game. Duke, Miami, NC State, and South Carolina are all opponents that are not currently ranked but did receive votes in the coaches poll. All four teams should be very competitive and could be in the top 25 by the end of 2023. The Tiger’s schedule is ranked the 35th toughest by FBschedule based on 2022 win percentages. Some of these teams should be even better than last year so even ending at 11-1 should not be taken lightly by the committee.
Head-to-Head
We have already talked about the two biggest matchups the Tigers have this season against Florida State and Notre Dame. These head-to-head matchups are of course important to win on the field since both teams should also be playoff contenders. Beating both these teams will put them well ahead in the playoff race. This is not where the competition will end against these teams though. Another factor the committee looks at is how teams win against similar opponents. With Florida State being in the ACC and Notre Dame being ACC adjacent, both programs will have a few of the same opponents as Clemson.
To be exact, Florida State will have four of the same opponents while Notre Dame will have three. Florida State will play Syracuse, Duke, Wake Forest, and Miami. Notre Dame will play NC State, Duke, and Wake Forest. Another way for Clemson to better lock down a playoff spot they have to win better against these teams. If FSU beats WF by 21, Clemson has to beat them by at least another field goal.
Making it back will be no easy task for the Tigers, but they can do it. They have a pretty tough schedule but it is definitely one they can win enough games with. They have the talent and coaching to compete with anyone in the country if they get there. It is just most important for them to do one thing every week, win.
Photo courtesy: Ken Ruinard / staff / USA TODAY NETWORK
