The Rio Open Round of 16 is set to deliver some exciting clay-court battles as players fight for a place in the quarterfinals. With a mix of lucky losers, qualifiers, and established names in action, there’s plenty of intrigue heading into these matchups. Here’s a quick look at the key clashes and where the betting value might lie.
ATP 500 Rio de Janeiro 1/16-Finals
Barrios Vera – Berrettini: 17.02.2026 20:30 CEST
H2H: 0-1
Tomas Barrios Vera has won three of his last five matches. This week in Rio de Janeiro, Barrios Vera lost to Prizmic in the final qualifying round in straight sets. However, with several players withdrawing from the tournament, he entered the main draw as a lucky loser.
Matteo Berrettini has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Buenos Aires, Berrettini lost to Kopriva in the second round in straight sets. This is his second appearance in Rio de Janeiro. In 2022, the Italian lost to Alcaraz in the quarterfinals in three tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Berrettini is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. Barrios Vera was helpless in the final qualifying round against Prizmic. On the other hand, Berrettini enjoys playing on fast clay courts. We expect him to dominate in this match.
That being said, Berrettini covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Matteo Berrettini -4.5 games handicap @2.00 @bet365
Fonseca – Monteiro: 18.02.2026 23:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Joao Fonseca has lost four of his last five matches. So far this season, Fonseca has played only two competitive matches and lost both. Last season in Rio de Janeiro, the Brazilian lost to Muller in the opening round in straight sets.
Thiago Monteiro has won three of his last five matches. This week in Rio de Janeiro, Monteiro qualified for the main draw of the tournament. In the final qualifying round, Monteiro defeated Lajovic in three tight sets, after losing the opening set 2-6.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Fonseca is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He started slow this season. However, he is one of the best clay-court players. We expect him to dominate on home soil.
That being said, Fonseca covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Joao Fonseca -3.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365
Prizmic – Passaro: 17.02.2026 20:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Dino Prizmic has won four of his last five matches. This week in Rio de Janeiro, Prizmic qualified for the main draw tournament by winning both qualifying matches in straight sets.
Francesco Passaro has won three of his last five matches. This week in Rio de Janeiro, Passaro lost against Gaubas in the final qualifying round in straight sets. However, with several players withdrawing from the tournament, he entered the main draw as a lucky loser.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Prizmic is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He is in great form and enjoys playing on clay. On the other hand, Passaro struggled since the beginning of the season. We expect the Croat to dominate in this match and get a comfortable win.
That being said, Prizmic covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Dino Prizmic -3.5 games handicap @1.80 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: David Gonzales-Imagn Images
