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Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic Wimbledon final
September 3, 2025 By  Tennis Predictions

US Open Men’s Semifinal Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic

The tennis world will once again be treated to a blockbuster on Friday afternoon from Flushing, New York, as No. 2 seed Carlos Alcaraz squares off against 24-time Grand Slam Champion Novak Djokovic in the US Open semifinals. Alcaraz will be the fresher of the two players, but the pressure that accompanies squaring off against Djokovic inside Ashe is impossible to simulate. As always, we at LWOT offer our preview and prediction. Offering their insights are Zain Mustafa, Manan Mehta, Tope Oke, Ateet Shrivastava, and Shane Black. But who will advance to the US Open final?

US Open Men’s Semifinal Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic

Head-to-Head: Alcaraz 3-5 Djokovic

Zain
It has taken over seven months, but we have finally gotten another chapter of “DjokoCaraz.” Right now, Carlos Alcaraz looks like the better player and is in sharper form. His forehand and serve have been firing all fortnight so far, as he’s yet to drop a set and has been broken only once. Still, you can never count out Novak Djokovic, who, at the very least, holds the edge in the serve-return dynamic entering this match.

This could turn into a physical war of attrition. If it does so, I think both players will be fit and motivated to give their all, but the younger, fresher, and more dynamic player just edges it in a New York thriller.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 5

Manan
It’s a repeat of the Australian Open Quarterfinals. A blockbuster Friday for the fans as Djokovic’s serve, movement, and slice usage make him a strong contender. He has lost a couple of sets here and there, but at no point has he looked dominated by his opponent. World No. 2 Alcaraz has not put a foot wrong this event. He has made sure his concentration levels stay intact, and he will need every bit of that if he has to overcome Djokovic. His movement has improved significantly and has been serving with impeccable accuracy. Djokovic has defeated Alcaraz in their previous two meetings and will take great confidence from that. For a change, the Serb will not have to go up against his nemesis Sinner in the semifinals, and that might also push him in this match.
Prediction: Djokovic in 5

Tope
This could have been the third Grand Slam championship match between these two, but there is a certain Italian in the equation. Quite difficult to go against the evergreen Djokovic in this one, especially as he’s defeated the Spaniard on all three of their hardcourt matches, but Alcaraz has looked imperious in New York – yet to drop a set and has dropped his serve just once! I think he will have more in his tank to get through to the final.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 4

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Ateet
Novak Djokovic defeated home hope Taylor Fritz for the 11th time to secure his place in another semifinal at the US Open. He has now made the semifinals of all four Majors this season, which is absurd at 38. He will face his biggest challenge in Carlos Alcaraz, who is playing some of his best tennis on hard courts and will be eager to get revenge for the Australian Open loss. Djokovic won the last two encounters, but I think the Spaniard is ready this time to end the Serb’s run.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 5

Shane
Djokovic continues to turn back time, but this US Open semifinal match against an in-form Alcaraz is inarguably his hardest of the tournament thus far. The 38-year-old has spent over three more hours on court through five rounds than his Spanish opponent. The first set is absolutely crucial for Djokovic, as he knows the longer the match goes, the more his odds drop. I see Alcaraz winning a tight first set and cruising in sets two and three.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3

Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane – USA TODAY Sports

About Shane Black

Sports fanatic and American tennis advocate contributing previews, recaps and opinion pieces covering and promoting this great game and its young stars.

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