The US Open moves into the weekend with some exciting men’s third-round matches. As always, we at Last Word on Tennis share our predictions for every match. Our panelists Zain, Damian, and Ilemona give their thoughts on the matches for Novak Djokovic, Ben Shelton, Tomas Machac, and more.
Novak Djokovic vs Cameron Norrie
Zain: Their third meeting of the season so far, Cameron Norrie is the type of opponent that Novak Djokovic should both like and be frustrated about. The Serb will get enough rallies to get back in rhythm, something which he has still been trying to find here, and in doing that the Brit’s stubbornness may test the gas and the motivation of the 24-time major champion. Djokovic just has too many options in a match like this, and barring a calamity he should come out of this match closer to his goal of what his level should be heading into the second week. Prediction: Djokovic in 3
Damian: Djokovic was lightly tested by Svajda and responded, this probably shouldn’t be any tougher. We’ve seen Norrie come up against him time and time again, usually trying the same patterns and failing every single time. It’s doubtful he’ll have the belief and ability to seriously trouble the 24-time Grand Slam champion this time. Prediction: Djokovic in 3
Ilemona: Djokovic was pushed to four sets by the young American Zachary Svajda in the second round, further raising questions about his match fitness. Norrie hasn’t been in the best form since Wimbledon, but his grinding style can drag opponents into long exchanges. If it turns into a battle of endurance, this could get more complicated than expected. Prediction: Djokovic in 4
Ben Shelton vs Adrian Mannarino
Zain: This had been a tricky match-up for Ben Shelton, with Adrian Mannarino’s flat hitting and serve causing damage. Until Toronto four weeks ago, where Shelton absolutely crushed the French veteran. The scoreline there might have been an outlier, but Shelton’s improved decision-making and ability to hang in rallies recently is not. This match might get tricky for him, but as now a proper top-8 player in the world, it is one that he should win. Prediction: Shelton in 4
Damian: Mannarino has kept things tricky for Shelton in their previous matches and has been in wonderful form since the grass swing began. But you can’t go against the red-hot American at the moment and the longer format might suit him this time compared to when they played in Australia at the start of last season. Prediction: Shelton in 4
Ilemona: Shelton’s serve has been firing, and he’s been feeding off the New York crowd in his early matches. Mannarino brings an awkward lefty game that breaks rhythm and has already seen off two dangerous opponents. This clash of styles could get interesting if Shelton can’t dictate with first strikes. Prediction: Shelton in 3
Tomas Machac vs Ugo Blanchet
Zain: Another qualifier that finds himself having beaten a top-20 seed (Jakub Mensik) and in the third round, Ugo Blanchet’s big serve means he will always have a fighting chance given any day. Tomas Machac though is operating at another level right now, showing the world why he is such a dangerous player if fit and locked in in his demolition job of Joao Fonseca. A second major fourth-round appearance should be a reasonable expectation now, unless the body or mind fails him. Prediction: Machac in 4
Damian: Blanchet took advantage of Marozsan and Mensik crumbling when they had chances to secure big leads and counter-punched his way to the win. Machac should do a better job converting and a way to the win for the Frenchman is tough to see unless his opponent starts experiencing some of the physical issues he’s constantly battling again. Prediction: Machac in 3
Ilemona: Machac has carried his strong hard court summer into the Open, looking quick around the baseline and confident under pressure. Blanchet is making the most of his breakthrough run, but he’s spent plenty of time on court already. Machac’s cleaner shotmaking should hold up better over five sets. Prediction: Machac in 3
Benjamin Bonzi vs Arthur Rinderknech
Zain: An all-French affair, both of these players have outdone their seedings here, with Benjamin Bonzi getting the better of Daniil Medvedev and Arthur Rinderknech winning a five-set classic against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Marathon man Bonzi has already played ten sets this tournament, a work rate that should definitely cause fatigue. Rinderknech has a habit of getting tight in tense situations, but he might not get a better chance to finally get a tour-level match win against his fatigued compatriot. Prediction: Rinderknech in 5
Damian: All-French classic and they know each other’s games very well. Bonzi might be a bit more wiped out after the first two rounds, first prevailing in that dramatic match against Medvedev and then coming back from 0-2 in sets. It seems like the circumstances are just right for Rinderknech to beat his frequent rival here and get closer in the head-to-head. Prediction: Rinderknech in 5
Ilemona: Bonzi has been steady all week, using his compact game to handle tricky situations. Rinderknech’s serve and aggressive forehand are always dangerous, and he’s riding momentum after some tough wins. An all-French duel like this often comes down to nerve, and it could be closer than the form guide suggests. Prediction: Bonzi in 5
Main Photo Credit: Andy Abeyta/The Desert Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
