The WTA Montreal Open has been a wild event so far. Clara Tauson has put on a clinic, upsetting not just Iga Swiatek in straight sets, but doing the same to Madison Keys in the quarterfinals. Here are my best bets for both semifinal matches, and an additional prop bet for those interested. As always, please give me your thoughts in the comments.
WTA Montreal Open Semifinals
Osaka – Tauson: Time 01:30
H2H: 0-1
Both Naomi Osaka and Clara Tauson have exceeded expectations at the WTA Montreal Open. Tauson has been the star of the tournament, with wins over Lucia Bronzetti, Yulia Starodubtseva, Iga Swiatek, and Madison Keys. Osaka has quality wins over Elina Svitolina and Liudmila Samsonova on her way to the semifinals. It’s worth highlighting that Tauson beat Osaka in straight sets in the final of the WTA Auckland Open earlier this year, which was Tauson’s only title this year. Osaka’s lone tournament victory in 2025 came at Saint-Malo.
Best Bet to Make
It’s interesting to see Osaka as the favorite in this match, and I’m guessing the books are taking Osaka’s overall record on hardcourt more seriously than Tauson’s win earlier this year on a hardcourt. They probably also expect some kind of letdown after two high-profile matches in a row. I think Tauson has looked as dialed in and confident as she ever has. She’s also 19-6 on a hardcourt this year. Osaka is 15-5 in 2025 and 224-113 overall on a hardcourt. This just seems to be Tauson’s tournament.
That being said, Tauson winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tauson winning @2.06 @1xBet
Mboko – Rybakina: Time 00:00
H2H: 0-1
Victoria Mboko will not be denied, unless it was by Elina Rybakina earlier this year in the round of 16 at WTA Washington. Mboko has a fantastic chance for revenge, and it comes on her best surface in 2025. Mboko has been 17-2 in hardcourt matches, but Rybakina is no slouch at 21-8 on the surface herself. Both women have quality wins on their way to the semifinals, but Mboko probably has the best individual win at the tournament over Coco Gauff.
Best Bet to Make
There’s no doubt that Mboko is having a standout year and is sure to keep rising in the world rankings. She has five tournament victories on the year to Rybakina’s one. On the flip side, all of Mboko’s hardcourt triumphs are at the ITF level while this is Rybakina’s fourth WTA hardcourt semifinal of the year. Rybakina is just operating at a different level right now, and she has the bonus of having been in the semifinals at Montreal once before, back in 2023.
That being said, Rybakina winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Rybakina winning @1.5 @1xBet
Mboko – Rybakina: Time 00:00
Best Bet to Make
Since there are only two matches, I wanted to draw your attention to a few prop bets on the match. The most profitable bet that is still reasonable has Rybakina winning two sets to nil at 2.2 on William Hill. This bet is backed up by the fact that under 2.5 sets can be had on Unibet for 1.53 while the over is a full point higher at 2.5 on Betsafe. Even the books don’t think this one is going past three sets. I do think Mboko is game enough to do it, I just don’t think it’s going to occur with the way that Tauson has been playing lately.
That being said, Rybakina winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Rybakina winning 2:0 @2.2 @WilliamHill
Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
