2025 French Open quarterfinalist Alexander Bublik will get a good shot on Sunday to win his first clay-court title at the 2025 Gstaad Open, but he’ll have to go through the tricky Juan Manuel Cerundolo, a weapon himself on the slow dirt. LWOT previews and predicts the upcoming match, with the two players facing off for the first time in their careers.
ATP Gstaad Final Prediction
Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Alexander Bublik
Head-to-head: First meeting
Bublik hasn’t dropped a set en route to the final, taking out Arthur Cazaux in his semifinal match 6-1 7-5 on Saturday. The Kazakh suffered a disappointing Wimbledon loss after winning an ATP 500 title in Halle. Still, he rebounded well on a surface that is statistically his worst, according to Tennis Abstract data. Bublik is 32-37 on clay throughout his career, and this is his first appearance in an ATP tour-level final on clay.
Cerundolo has surely had the more challenging road, and regardless of Sunday’s result, this week will mark one of the best of his career. The Argentinian — who bears one clay court title to his name from 2022 — stunned Casper Ruud for a second career Top 20 win in the quarterfinals. On Saturday, he cruised past the qualifier Ignacio Buse 6-3 6-3, only facing one break point in the entire match. Cerundolo also defeated Jan-Lennard Struff and David Goffin en route to the final.
Bublik’s craftiness will have to take Cerundolo out of his comfort zone. While Bublik has a powerful first (and second) serve that can be unpredictable, his variety is more predictable on a slow court. Cerundolo is a patient player who relies on longer rallies. Bublik is prone to ups and downs, but he’s the player who may struggle if his shots aren’t landing as expected.
That being said, Bublik is the favorite to win this match. It’s hard for any player, especially on clay, to string together five consecutive wins, which Cerundolo would do with a win. Bublik’s straightforward wins in Gstaad have to give him confidence as well. Bublik will be able to dictate the points with his aggression; as long as he can balance and control the drop shots and often manic shots, look for him to win his sixth career title.
Prediction: Bublik in 2
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke – USA TODAY Sports
