It’s time for the ATP Bastad semifinal matches, and yesterday was split right down the middle for my picks. David is still on break, so I’m still filling in with my best bets. Please let me know in the comments if any of my advice from yesterday was helpful to you. I dropped to .500 with last night’s picks. Camilo Ugo-Carabelli alone has been a thorn in my side.
ATP Swedish Open
Ugo Carabelli – De Jong: Time 13:00
H2H: 3-3
Camilo Ugo-Carabelli and Jesper De Jong have a long and storied rivalry. The overall rivalry is tied at three wins apiece, but Ugo-Carabelli is 3-2 against De Jong on clay. Ugo-Carabelli has been a menace to my picks, and he’s the better player on clay. Both men are further into the tournament than they’ve ever been. Both men seem to be playing above their level, as well. Ugo-Carabelli also has the lower-level tournament they won earlier this year, De Jong hasn’t had a tournament victory since 2024.
Best Bet to Make
Ugo-Carabelli won his last three matches as an underdog, and he has consistently made a fool of me in my picks, so let’s run with him this round and give him a chance to make a fool one last time. Ugo-Carabelli has an absurd number of wins on clay. He’s 340-186 overall on the surface. Jesper’s record is impressive, but it’s only 174-95 on clay. Should Ugo-Carabelli do well enough to reach the final, only Francisco Cerundolo would have the clay experience to go head-to-head with him. May it be an all-Argentinian final.
That being said, Ugo-Carabelli winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Ugo-Carabelli winning @2.1 @Bet365
Cerundolo – Darderi: Time 14:30
H2H: 2-1
Francisco Cerundolo is 2-1 against Luciano Darderi, and all of the matches have taken place on clay. Cerundolo is fortunate to have this as his opponent, because he had been struggling before Bastad. Cerundolo has already beaten Darderi twice in 2025. The first time was in the round of 16 at Rio De Janeiro and Buenos Aires, both in February. The last time Darderi was able to beat Cerundolo was in Houston in 2024. Both men are extremely competent on clay. Cerundolo is 21-9 on clay in ’25, and Darderi is 20-12 in ’25.
Best Bet to Make
Cerundolo is the favorite on the books once again. The logic behind him as a favorite comes from his recent victories over Darderi, and not his recent form. Two of their three matches have gone to a third set, and both of them had at least one tiebreak. Cerundolo hasn’t been in great form lately, and Darderi is playing the type of tennis one needs to pull off the upset. I’m thinking Cerundolo needs three sets to get this done, but that he ultimately does win the match.
That being said, Cerundolo winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Cerundolo winning @1.65 @Pinnacle
Main Photo Credit: David Kirouac-USA TODAY Sports
