As ATP Bastad continues to the quarterfinals, I return with more best bets. David is still on break, so I’m still filling in with my best bets. Let me know in the comments if any of my advice from yesterday paid off for you. The action at ATP Bastad has been more hits than misses for me, but there also haven’t been any bad beats.
ATP Swedish Open
Baez – Darderi: Time 11:00
H2H: 5-2
Sebastian Baez hasn’t had too many problems when it comes to beating Luciano Darderi. Not only did Baez defeat Darderi just three matches ago, but he’s 4-2 against him on clay, which Bastad is. Darderi’s best win against Baez on clay came in 2024 as he got revenge on him in the semifinal at Cordoba, having lost just the year prior in the round of 16. Baez hasn’t been as successful in the second half of the clay season as he was in the first. He hasn’t been in a clay final since April 6th, and Bastad is the first time since April that he won a tournament match on clay. Darderi has also been struggling since April, but both men have one tournament victory each this year.
Best Bet to Make
The books have this match as a push. You can find outlets offering Darderi as the favorite, and you can find outlets offering Baez as the favorite. More of them have Baez than Darderi, but it’s pretty close across the board. As a result of having beaten him recently, in addition to his overall record against him, I’m taking Baez in this match. At 1.99, you can practically double your money betting on the guy who is 5-2 against his opponent. The warmup competition was about the same level for both men, so rock the favorite and cash out a winner.
That being said, Baez winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Baez winning @1.99 @Betfair
De Jong – Griekspoor: Time 11:00
H2H: 1-0
Het is een volledig Nederlandse kwartfinale. Jesper De Jong and Tallon Griekspoor will duke it out for Dutch supremacy and a spot in the semifinal at Bastad. Their last match was an incredible two-set war earlier this year in the quarterfinals at Montpellier, so this isn’t even their first quarterfinal match of the year against each other! Their last match was an hour and 46 minutes long, and it saw Griekspoor fail to win a single break point, and De Jong dominated first-serve points. If De Jong is going to pull off another upset, he’s going to need an equally dominant serve and be more effective on break points.
Best Bet to Make
The beauty of this match is that I can pick the Dutchman at ATP Bastad, and I can’t possibly lose! Watch, these two are somehow going to find a way to double-disqualify themselves, and I’ll be back with more egg on my face. This time around, I think Griekspoor won’t be caught so off guard. He will be prepared to break serve and dictate the pace of this match. His effort against Pelligrino will surely be a reminder of how easily you can lose by underestimating a favorite, and I doubt he makes the same mistake not only twice, but against a guy he already underestimated once before. I expect Griekspoor to win early and often.
That being said, Griekspoor winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Griekspoor winning @1.65 @Betway
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
