It’s the round of 16 at ATP Bastad continues, and LWOS is back with more best bets. David is still on break, so I’m still filling in with my best bets. Let me know in the comments if any of my advice from yesterday paid off for you. The action at Bastad has been more hits than misses for me, but there also haven’t been any bad beats.
ATP Swedish Open
Misolic – Borges: Time 11:00
H2H: 0-0
Filip Misolic continued his winning ways in 2025 against Elmer Muller in the last round. Though Muller hung around for longer than I had thought he would, the cream rose to the top, and Misolic moved on. Borges enters this match in a bit of a rut. He’s 5-5 in his last ten, and he’s 8-7 on clay in 2025. Yes, he’s 134-65 on clay overall, but he’s struggled on clay since about the end of 2022. Of course, he also won Bastad in 2024 and is easily capable of a repeat. To do so, he would have to have his best performance of 2025, and also make it past the quarterfinals of a clay tournament, something he’s yet to do this year.
Best Bet to Make
Borges is the favorite here, and it makes total sense. He’s a bigger player on the world stage; he’s the defending champion, and his matches against top competition lately have proven he’s still got it. The thing is, he was right here last year. Sitting at about 20-18 overall, he rattled off one of the more impressive runs to win it all. Sure, he’s 25-21 on the year, but that would actually be even better than last year’s record. That doesn’t make Misolic a slouch, and I think it wouldn’t be wise to count on Borges to repeat the same exact feat as last year. Normally, playing .500 tennis wouldn’t make someone the favorite over a better player on the same surface, and I don’t think Borges would be as heavily favored had he not won here last year. I’m picking an upset here with Misolic.
That being said, Misolic winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Misolic winning @2.25 @BetVictor
Ugo-Carabelli – Van De Zandschulp: Time 11:00
H2H: 0-0
Camilo Ugo-Carabelli vs Botic Van De Zandschulp is going to be an absolute nightmare for the TV announcers, and I’m absolutely here for it. On a more serious note, Ugo-Carabelli played a fantastic game against Cristian Garin, as he had an impressive first-serve winning percentage, and he was able to keep the mistakes to a minimum, with just two double-faults. Van De Zandschulp is coming off his own impressive performance against Mikael Ymer, dominating at the net and dictating the entire match. It was the kind of performance needed to give the Dutchman confidence, as he’s not playing his best right now, and sits at 16-19 on the year.
Best Bet to Make
The last time I said “I’m absolutely positive this Dutchman won’t win,” I wound up with enough egg on my face to make the entire internet an omelet. As such, I’ll be doing my patriotic duty and choosing the Van De Zandschulp in this match, and with good reason. Yes, sure, he’s a slight favorite as it is, but the difference in his play at Ugo Carabelli’s is night and day. Where Carabelli was struggling to win points behind his first serve, Van De Zandschulp was not. Carabelli also struggled converting break points, and Van De Zandschulp didn’t.
That being said, Van De Zandschulp winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Van De Zandschulp winning @1.91 @William Hill
Cerundolo – Navone: Time 14:00
H2H: 0-1
Mariano Navone was all smiles the last time he played Francisco Cerundolo. It was the quarterfinal in Bucharest in 2024, and Navone took the match in a three-set war, featuring two different seven-game sets. Navone also reached the quarterfinals here at Bastad last year. As for Cerundolo, he won here in 2022 and reached a semifinal in 2023. Both men are outstanding on clay. Navone is 237-126 overall on clay, and Cerundolo is 277-122 on clay. Navone is 20-11 this year, while Cerundolo is 19-9. Navone also has one lower-level tournament victory this year, and that literally happened right before Bastad, so he’s a bit hot entering the match.
Best Bet to Make
Cerundolo is the favorite by about a half point, and I concur. Cerundolo is having a very competitive year on clay, and he typically only loses to top talent. One might wonder if Francisco got any tips from Juan Manuel, given that his little brother was the man who pushed Navone in the final he won at Braunschweig, before Bastad. It cannot hurt to be related to your opponents’ most recent opponent in a high-profile match. Navone might be entering in better form, but Cerundolo has had little problem rising to the challenge in matches on clay this year. Watch… famous last words.
That being said, Cerundolo winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Cerundolo winning @1.75 @Pinnacle
Main Photo Credit: David Kirouac-USA TODAY Sports
