We’re just days away from the start of the second Grand Slam of the 2025 tennis season: the French Open in Paris, better known worldwide as Roland Garros. At just 22 years old, Carlos Alcaraz enters the tournament as the clear favorite to defend his title and cement his status as the dominant force on clay.
With a commanding straight-sets victory over home favorite Jannik Sinner in the ATP Rome final, Alcaraz joined the elite company of players who have captured every ATP Masters title on clay in addition to the French Open—an extraordinary feat so early in his career. While Sinner was returning from a suspension stemming from a settled doping case, Alcaraz has been relentless this season, posting a 30–5 record that includes titles in Monte Carlo and Rome, as well as a runner-up finish in Barcelona. His 21–4 career record at Roland Garros and 84% win rate on clay make him daunting opponent at the tournament.
This spring, Alcaraz has notched signature wins over top competition, including Alex de Minaur, Arthur Fils, Jack Draper, and two victories against Lorenzo Musetti. He’s shown he’s no flat-track bully. His level rises against quality opponents, at a time when Sinner’s absence and Novak Djokovic’s form issues have left the remaining field of contenders an open question.
Alcaraz’s dominance places him among legends. Since the beginning of the ATP Tour era, only Rafael Nadal—the “King of Clay”—Novak Djokovic, and South American greats Gustavo Kuerten and Marcelo Ríos have won all the premier ATP clay titles. Kuerten and Djokovic captured three French Open titles apiece, while Nadal’s unmatched total stands at a staggering 14.
Regardless of the draw, Alcaraz, the world No. 2 and second seed, will be favored against every possible opponent. Several contenders are tuning up this week: Alexander Zverev is competing at home in ATP Hamburg, while Djokovic is searching for form at the ATP 250 in Geneva following his split with coach Andy Murray. Holger Rune, who handed Alcaraz his only clay loss this season in Madrid, would at least enter a late round match against Alcaraz with confidence.
Current odds give Alcaraz close to a 50% chance of winning the tournament—an almost modest projection considering his form. Only Sinner, Djokovic, and Zverev are rated with better than a 10% shot, while other challengers like Casper Ruud, Rune, and Stefanos Tsitsipas round out the list of plausible contenders. Among them, only Djokovic holds a career head-to-head advantage over Alcaraz, though the aging Serbian may struggle in best-of-five matches. Sinner remains an unknown form wise after a long layoff, and Rune, despite his recent win, has yet to prove himself deep into a Slam.
While surprises are always possible at Roland Garros, the stars appear to be aligning for Alcaraz to become just the fourth man in the modern ATP era to win multiple French Open titles, joining Djokovic, Kuerten, and Nadal on yet another prestigious list. Simply put, this tournament is Alcaraz’s to lose.
Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
