ATP Masters 1000 Rome 1/8-Finals
Draper – Moutet: 13.05.2025 11:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Jack Draper has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Madrid, Draper lost against Ruud in the final in three tight sets. This week in Rome, the Brit defeated Darderi in the opening round. Kopriva also had no answer for Draper’s game in the third round. The Brit won in straight sets, saving all four breakpoints. Last season in Rome, the Brit lost against Medvedev in the second round in straight sets.
Corentin Moutet has won four of his last five matches. This is his fifth appearance in Rome. Moutet won against Hijikata in three sets in the opening main draw round. In the second round, Humbert retired mid-match against Moutet. As we predicted, the Frenchman upset Rune in three tight sets after spending almost four hours on the court.
Best Bets to Make
Main Bet
According to the bookies, Draper is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He has been one of the most consistent players on tour this season. Moutet has no weapons for his game and has spent almost four hours on the court in the third round. We expect Draper to dominate and win easily.
That being said, Draper winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Jack Draper winning 2-0 @1.50 @bet365
Extra Bet
As previously mentioned, Moutet will be fatigued coming into this match. Draper is in great form, and we expect him to get the job done quickly here.
That said, Moutet winning less than 7.5 games is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Corentin Moutet under 7.5 total games @-110 @Caesars
Fils – Zverev: 13.05.2025 17:00 CEST
H2H: 2-3
Arthur Fils has won three of his last five matches. His last match before ATP Rome was in Madrid, where he lost in the opening round match against Comesana in straight sets. In Rome, the Frenchman won the opening round match against Griekspoor in straight sets this week. In the third round, Fils lost the opening set 2-6 against Tsitsipas. However, he stayed calm and turned the match around. Last season in Rome, Muller stopped him in the second round.
Alexander Zverev has won four of his last five matches. Zverev is the second seed this week in Rome. He is the defending champion in Rome. Last season, Zverev defeated Jarry in the final in straight sets. This week in Rome, he won his opening match against Ugo Carabeli 6-2 6-1. In the third round, Zverev demolished Gaubas 6-4 6-0.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Fils is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. Zverev has had a favourable draw so far. However, he has struggled with his form for the last couple of months, and we expect him to struggle against Fils, who is in solid form. They played against each other last season in Hamburg, when Fils upset Zverev in three tight sets. Since then, Fils has dramatically improved, and we expect him to win tomorrow.
That being said, Fils winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Arthur Fils winning @2.30 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
