The WTA Italian Open men’s action has been outstanding, and the side action hasn’t been too shabby either. Rain prevented play on May 8th, but the skies relented, and the tournament is back on schedule. Here are some of my best bets for the opening rounds. If you agree or disagree with anything I have here, be sure to let me know why in the comments. I always appreciate the feedback, and I take criticism to heart to ensure I’m always providing the best content possible.
ATP Italian Open
Shelton – Munar: Time 15:30
H2H: 1-1
Ben Shelton and Jaume Munar will meet for the third time in their careers, and the series is currently tied at 1-1. Munar took their most recent match in Dallas. Shelton couldn’t get his forehand working, and Munar’s return game was impeccable that day. Shelton hasn’t had the 2025 that was expected of him. While he did make the semifinals at the Aussie Open and the Finals in Munich, all but one of the other tournaments he’s played in have seen his exit by the Round of 16 or earlier.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Shelton as the favorite, and I agree. While it might be tempting to look at how easily Munar dispatched Shelton earlier this year, that doesn’t account for his remarkably poor performances on clay in 2025. Munar had a single win on clay before Rome. As if that’s not bad enough, he was a favorite in four of those matches. That lone win was against Tiafoe, and Munar was the favorite. It may take three sets, but Shelton should win this match.
That being said, Shelton winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Shelton winning @1.80 @WilliamHill
Ofner – Tiafoe: Time 11:00
H2H: 0-1
Sebastian Ofner is 0-1 against Frances Tiafoe, and the loss was pretty convincing. It was a straight-set loss in three at the 2023 US Open. While he has played only clay tournaments in 2025, it’s only been the last two tournaments that he’s joined the ATP proper. He is primarily a lower-level player, and doesn’t have a single tournament victory not on the challenger level. Tiafoe is 6-4 in his last ten matches, and he has an appearance in the final at Houston, which was on clay.
Best Bet to Make
Ofner is going to be an extremely tough out for Tiafoe. Not only is he accomplished on clay in general, but he’s been a nuisance on the Challenger tour. Ofner has played in six different tournaments this year, all on clay, with the last two being at the ATP level. He is 4-1 on clay at this level, and is more than capable of beating Tiafoe. That said, Tiafoe should win in three. He’s stayed busy on clay in 2025, including making the final in Houston.
That being said, Taifoe winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tiafoe winning @2.44 @Pinnacle
Martinez – Hurkacz: Time 12:30
H2H: 0-4
Hubert Hurkacz has been pretty dominant against Pedro Martinez. At 4-0 against him, Hurkacz has beaten him twice on clay and twice on hardcourt. Their last meeting was a tournament final in Estoril, which Hurkazc won in straight sets. Martinez is 3-6 in clay tournaments since April began. He was 3-3 prior to that. His finest performance on clay came earlier this year in February in Buenos Aires, where he reached the semifinals.
Best Prop Bet to Make
Right now feels like it’s time for Martinez to get revenge. Hurkacz hasn’t really been a clay player in 2025, and while Martinez hasn’t had the best record on clay, he does have six wins on the year. Hurkacz also lost his last match on clay to an underdog boasting similar odds. Hurkacz’s lack of activity in 2025 is what has me so nervous. Rotterdam is the only time he’s looked especially good outside of the United Cup. I just feel like Martinez’s activity lately will have him prepared for this one. Martinez in three.
That being said, Martinez winning is a value bet, for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Martinez winning @2.5 @Bet365;
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
