ATP Masters 1000 Madrid 1/32-Finals
Baez – Dzumhur: 26.04.2025 11:00 CEST
H2H: 3-0
Sebastian Baez has lost three of his last five matches. In three tight sets last week in Barcelona, Baez lost in the 1/8-Finals against Rune. Last season in Madrid, the Argentine reached the third round, losing against Fritz in straight sets.
Damir Dzumhur has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Barcelona, Dzumhur lost in the opening round against Baez in straight sets. This will be his third appearance in Madrid. In the opening round, Dzumhur defeated Bellucci in three sets. He has never made it past the second round.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Baez is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He leads 3-0 in head-to-head meetings against Dzumhur. In their last matchup, Baez dominated against the Bosnian under similar conditions. We expect a similar outcome tomorrow as well.
That being said, Baez winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Sebastian Baez winning 2-0 @1.91 @bet365
Etcheverry – Musetti: 26.04.2025 11:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Tomas Martin Etcheverry has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Barcelona, de Minaur defeated Etcheverry in straight sets in the opening round. The Argentine hopes for a solid result to return to the top 50 in the rankings this week. In the opening round, Etcheverry defeated Medjedovic in three sets. Last season in Madrid, Etcheverry lost in the second round against Shapovalov in straight sets.
Lorenzo Musetti has won four of his last five matches. His last match was in Monte Carlo, where he finished as a runner-up, losing against Alcaraz in three sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Etcheverry is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He is a clay-court specialist and has played well in the opening round against Medjedovic. Musetti has not played competitive matches for the past two weeks, so we expect the Argentine to keep this match tight.
That being said, Etcheverry covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tomas Martin Etcheverry +2.5 games handicap @2.00 @bet365
Nishikori – Shapovalov: 26.04.2025 11:00 CEST
H2H: 2-1
Kei Nishikori has won three of his last five matches. His last match before ATP Masters Madrid was in Houston three weeks ago, when he retired mid-match against Eubanks in the 1/8-Finals. Nishikori was a finalist two times in Madrid. In the opening round, Nishikori defeated Vukic in three tight sets.
Denis Shapovalov has lost four of his last five matches. Last week in Munich, Shapovalov retired mid-match against Dedura in the opening round. Last season in Madrid, Shapovalov lost in the third round against Zverev in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Nishikori is the slight underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. Nishikori played well in the opening round against Vukic and has already finished twice as a runner-up in Madrid. On the other hand, Shapovalov almost always underperforms on clay, and we are not even sure if he is 100% fit for this match.
That being said, Nishikori winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Kei Nishikori winning @2.20 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
