The ATP Mutua Madrid Open enter the fourth day with some mouth-watering encounters lined up, including the third clay court meeting this season between Sebastian Baez and Damir Dzumhur. Will the Bosnian end the rout? We analyse the match and several other matches to predict who will make it to the next round.
ATP Madrid Day 4 Predictions
Sebastian Baez vs Damir Dzumhur
Head–to–Head: Baez 3 vs 0 Dzumhur
Sebastian Baez rightly enters as the favourite against Damir Dzumhur, being the better clay-court player, having defeated the Bosnian in all three of their encounters on the surface, with two wins in straight sets. His recent form on clay, including a title in Rio and a final in Santiago, gives him an edge.
Dzumhur, despite a solid 2025 (21-12 overall, 11-7 on clay) and a gritty win over Matteo Bellucci in the first round, struggles against Baez’s consistency and defensive prowess.
Baez will enter the match in confident mood, but we expect the Bosnian to be motivated enough to deny his more illustrious opponent a fourth consecutive win.
Prediction: Dzumhur in 3
Ugo Humbert vs Alexandre Muller
Head–to–Head: First Meeting
Alexandre Muller, coming off a first-round win via David Goffin’s retirement, has shown resilience on clay with a Hong Kong title and Rio final this season but struggles with consistency against top players and this will even be exarcebated against his compatriot Humbert who has possesses a more potent serve and aggressive baseline game, and will benefit from Madrid’s high-altitude conditions that favour power players.
Despite a hand injury, Humbert’s recent form, including a title in Marseille, gives him an edge; however, as this is their first career meeting, it will add a bit of unpredictability to the outcome.
Muller came out all guns blazing in his first round, and if he can replicate his performance, the upset bells will be set off.
Prediction: Muller in 3
Tommy Paul vs Joao Fonseca
Head–to–Head: First Meeting
Eleventh seed Tommy Paul has had a solid 2025, boasting a 15-6 record, including semifinal appearances in Adelaide, Dallas, and Houston. However, his 2-4 record in Madrid and limited clay success suggest vulnerabilities. His teenage opponent, Joao Fonseca, is the rising star in the sport, with a clay-heavy background, having won his maiden ATP title in Buenos Aires and dominated his first-round encounter against Elmer Moller. His aggressive baseline play and comfort on clay will undoubtedly give him an edge.
While Paul’s experience and fitness make him a formidable opponent, Fonseca’s momentum and clay-court prowess tilt the scales. If Fonseca maintains his aggressive consistency and exploits Paul’s weaker clay movement, he will win in a competitive match. Give me the Brazilian to advance.
Prediction: Fonseca in 2
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Jan-Lennard Struff
Head–to–Head: Tsitsipas 5 vs 4 Struff
Tsitsipas, despite a recent dip in form and a retirement in Barcelona, holds a 5-4 head-to-head edge, though Struff leads 2-1 on clay. Tsitsipas’ strong 11-6 record in Madrid and defensive prowess on clay should counter Struff’s powerful serve and groundstrokes, which benefit from Madrid’s altitude. Struff’s poor 4-10 record in 2025 and eight-match losing streak before his first-round win suggest he’s struggling. Expect Tsitsipas to capitalise on his experience and recent clay-court form to secure a gritty victory.
Prediction: Tsitsipas in 3
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
