Holger Rune and Alexander Zverev arrive in Madrid hoping to add a thousand points to their newly acquired 500 points from the previous tournaments. First, they must get past a talented field of stars who have made it into the third day here in Madrid. We join the party and predict who’ll progress to the next round.
ATP Madrid Day 3 Predictions
Brandon Nakashima vs Sebastian Ofner
Head–to–Head: First Meeting
Sebastian Ofner is gradually finding his rhythm again after returning from a seven-month hiatus. He has won six of his last nine matches, including a composed straight set over Hugo Gaston in the first round here in Madrid.
Nakashima’s consistent baseline game and strong 2025 season with semifinal appearances in Acapulco and Houston give him an edge on Madrid’s clay, and while Ofner may initially struggle against Nakashima’s steadiness, it won’t be surprising if he clicks into gear to outwit the American, who hasn’t won a match in three attempts.
Prediction: Ofner in 3
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Head–to–Head: First Meeting
Despite Auger-Aliassime’s recent struggles on clay, including early exits in Monte Carlo and Munich, his powerful serve and aggressive baseline game should suit the fast, high-altitude conditions in Madrid, where he reached the final in 2024.
Cerundolo, a qualifier with a gritty clay-court style, showed resilience in his comeback win over Aleksandar Kovacevic, but his 0-2 record against top-20 players and inconsistent 2025 season suggest he’ll struggle against Auger-Aliassime’s firepower. Auger-Aliassime leads their head-to-head 1-0 from a 2023 hard-court meeting and will end his three-game winless streak with a gritty win over the in-form Argentine.
Prediction: Auger-Aliassime in 3.
Holger Rune vs Flavio Cobolli
Head–to–Head: Rune 1 vs 0 Cobolli
Holger Rune’s impressive resurgence has returned him to the top 10, now ranked #9 in the world, after finishing as the runner-up at the Indian Wells Masters and securing the title in Barcelona, where he beat Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets in the final.
Rune will face Cobolli for the second time – their first encounter was undoubtedly one of the highlights of the 2024 season, with Rune winning a marathon five-setter in the French Open second round.
While Cobolli remains a tricky opponent, he has had a tough year with a record of 8-10, though he had a purple patch on his way to winning the title in Bucharest. The Italian looked solid and composed as he dispatched Fabian Marozsan two days ago, but facing a highly motivated Rune will be an insurmountable challenge.
Prediction: Rune in 2.
Alexander Zverev vs Roberto Bautista-Agut
Head–to–Head: Zverev 5 vs 2 Bautista-Agut
Alexander Zverev’s quest for a third Madrid Open title starts against Roberto Bautista Agut. The German arrives at the tournament after recently winning the title in Munich, dropping a lone set in the process.
Bautista Agut secured a victory over fellow Spaniard Jaume Munar in the opening round, but it’s doubtful he will pose a challenge to the top seed here. Zverev has dominated their head-to-head matchups, winning the last five encounters.
The reigning French Open champion enjoys the conditions at the Caja Magica and is expected to bulldoze his way past the Spaniard in straight sets.
Prediction: Zverev in 2
Main Photo Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images
