ATP Masters 1000 Madrid 1/64-Finals
Mpetshi Perricard – Navone: Time TBA
H2H: 1-0
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard has lost four straight matches. His last win was over a month ago in Indian Wells. So far this season, the Frenchman played two clay court matches and lost both without winning a single set. Last week in Barcelona, Mpetshi Perricard lost in the opening round against Medjedovic in straight sets.
Mariano Navone has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Munich, Navone lost against Goffin in the 1/8-Finals. The Argentine enjoys playing on clay, where he had his biggest results. Last season in Madrid, Navone lost against Rune in the second round in three tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Navone is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He is a clay-court specialist, and we expect him to be a better player tomorrow. The Frenchman has played far away from his best level in the last couple of weeks.
That being said, Navone winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Mariano Navone winning @1.57 @bet365
Marozsan – Cobolli: Time TBA
H2H: 1-0
Fabian Marozsan has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Munich, He had a decent run, reaching the semifinals. He eventually lost against Zverev in tight straight sets. Last season in Madrid, Cerundolo stopped Marozsan in the second round.
Flavio Cobolli has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Munich, Cobolli lost against Shevchenko in the opening round in three tight sets. Last season in Madrid, Khachanov defeated Cobolli in the third round.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this will be an almost 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Marozsan is in great form and has performed well in Munich last week. In their only head-to-head meeting on clay, Marozsan defeated Cobolli in straight sets under similar conditions.
That being said, Marozsan winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Fabian Marozsan winning @1.73 @bet365
Michelsen – Bublik: Time TBA
H2H: first meeting
Alex Michelsen has lost three of his last five matches. His last match was in Houston, where he lost in the quarterfinals against Tiafoe in straight sets. Michelsen never had any success on European clay courts. Last season in Madrid, the American lost against Fonseca in the opening round.
Alexander Bublik has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Munich, Bublik lost in the opening round against Bergs in three tight sets. Last season in Madrid, Bublik lost in the fourth round against Medvedev in straight sets. He has never made it past the quarterfinals.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Bublik is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He always played well in Madrid, and we expect him to continue in that fashion. Michelsen, on the other hand, is inexperienced on clay. We believe Bublik is a better clay-court player, especially in Madrid.
That being said, Bublik winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alexander Bublik winning @2.10 @bet365
Value bet/ the best odds: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
