Two exciting semifinal matches are on the cards at the 2025 ATP Monte Carlo Masters, featuring two top 10 players and two dangerous dark horses. As always, we here at Last Word on Sport preview and predict both matches, with a spot in a Masters 1000 final on the line. But who will come out on top?
ATP Monte Carlo Semifinal Predictions
Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex de Minaur
Head-to-head: Musetti 1-1 de Minaur
Not many tennis players worldwide can say that they’re playing than Alex de Minaur right now. Coming off a 6-0 6-0 quarterfinal rout against Grigor Dimitrov, the Australian is into his first Masters 1000 semifinal of his career on clay. De Minaur has adapted well to the high-bouncing clay courts, and his speed works well on the slower surface. Lorenzo Musetti, meanwhile, upset Monte Carlo’s defending champion Stefanos Tsitsipas, 1-6 6-3 6-4 in the quarterfinals, coming off a third three-set match of the week. I see De Minaur being able to wear down the likely fatigued Musetti, and the world #10 is playing with too much confidence at the moment.
Prediction: De Minaur in 2
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Carlos Alcaraz
Head-to-head: Alcaraz 1-0 Davidovich Fokina
After a difficult Sunshine Double, Carlos Alcaraz seems to be playing better tennis this week on the clay. An up-and-down first match against Francisco Cerundolo exposed some of his tendencies to hit unforced errors, and his quarterfinal win over Arthur Fils featured some disappointing patterns of play. However, the Spaniard finished strong to win 4-6 7-5 6-3 against Fils, digging deep when it mattered.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has been back to his best from a tough end to the 2024 season, reaching his third semifinal of the year in Monte Carlo. He swept past Alexei Popyrin 6-3 6-2 in the quarterfinals, and has taken out big names historically in Monte Carlo: Novak Djokovic and a then top-10 ranked Matteo Berrettini in 2022 and 2021, respectively. Davidovich Fokina will have to play strong tennis from the baseline and force Alcaraz into unforced errors. It wouldn’t be a shock for Davidovich Fokina to pull off the upset, but he often struggles late in tournaments, and Alcaraz seems to turning a corner with his form this week.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
Main photo credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
