ATP Masters 1000 Monte Carlo semifinals
Davidovich Fokina – Alcaraz: 12.04.2025 Time TBA
H2H: 0-1
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has won four of his last five matches. This week in Monte Carlo, the Spaniard won the opening round match against Shelton in three tight sets. In the second round, Davidovich Fokina defeated Etcheverry in straight sets. He trailed in the opening set 0-2 but turned it around. Draper also had no answer for the Spaniard’s game. After playing for almost three hours, Davidovich Fokina won in three tight sets. Today, in the quarterfinals, he demolished Popyrin in straight sets but did not offer any breakpoints. Last season in Monte Carlo, the Spaniard lost in the opening round against Korda in straight sets.
Carlos Alcaraz has won three of his last five matches. This week in Monte Carlo, Alcaraz won the opening match against Cerundolo in three sets. After losing the opening set 3-6, Alcaraz stepped up his level and lost only one game for the rest of the match. In the 1/8-Finals, Alcaraz easily won against Altmaier in straight sets. However, Alcaraz offered 10 breakpoints. His toughest challenge came today in the quarterfinals against Fils. Alcaraz lost the opening set and saved three consecutive breakpoints in the second set. However, he stayed calm and turned the match around.
Best Bets to Make
Main Bet
According to the bookies, Alcaraz is the favorite in this matchup, but we disagree. Davidovich Fokina has been relentless this week in Monte Carlo, spending only one hour in the quarterfinals against Popyrin. On the other hand, Alcaraz is far away from his best tennis, and we expect this match to be tight.
That said, Davidovich Fokina covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina +4.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365
Extra Bet
Alcaraz defeated Davidovich Fokina on clay in tight straight sets in their only head-to-head meeting. However, as previously mentioned, Alcaraz is far away from his best level, and Davidovich Fokina is playing his best tennis. Davidovich Fokina can make an upset and win this match.
That being said, Davidovich Fokina winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina winning @4.50 @bet365
Musetti – de Minaur: 12.04.2025 Time TBA
H2H: 1-1
Lorenzo Musetti has won four of his last five matches. Musetti won the opening two matches in three tight sets this week in Monte Carlo. Today, in the quarterfinals, Musetti defeated Tsitsipas in three tight sets. After losing the opening set 1-6, Musetti reduced his unforced errors and turned the match around.
Alex de Minaur has won four of his last five matches. In his opening match against Machac, de Minaur won in three sets. After losing the opening set 3-6, de Minaur stepped up his level and turned the match around. In the quarterfinals, de Minaur demolished Dimitrov within 45 minutes, winning 6-0, 6-0.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, de Minaur is the favorite in this matchup, and we agree. He has been phenomenal this week in Monte Carlo. On the other hand, Musetti struggled in almost every match and spent way more time on the court than de Minaur. We expect de Minaur to dominate once again and win.
That being said, de Minaur winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alex de Minaur winning @1.62 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
