It is an all-American Houston quarterfinal lineup (first time on the main tour since 1991), so naturally the semifinals could only go one direction as well. Three of the top four seeds have made it to this stage of the tournament, with Jenson Brooksby saving match points twice to produce a brilliant run from the qualifying.
But the favorites remain the same – top seed Tommy Paul and 2023 champion Frances Tiafoe, who’s finding his peak game at ATP Houston again. Who do you think will make the final?
ATP Houston Semifinal Predictions
Brandon Nakashima vs Frances Tiafoe
Head-to-head: Tiafoe 5-1
Frances Tiafoe finally won two matches at one event this year after going exactly 1-1 in the first six appearances of the season. It shouldn’t come as a big surprise that the turnaround is this tournament in Houston, as he won the title in 2023 and then finished runner-up in 2024. He’s been fairly confident in the Brandon Nakashima matchup over the years, although they’ve never played on clay before. There’s just some extra spark about Tiafoe on these courts, and he should be able to make another final, despite not winning consecutive matches at any event since the US Open before this week.
Prediction: Tiafoe in 2
Tommy Paul vs Jenson Brooksby
Head-to-head: Paul 3-0
Jenson Brooksby saved match point(s) against two opponents on the way to this semifinal, but that’s all in the past now as he’s back to playing at a very strong level, not that long after returning from his 18-month hiatus. Clay has never been his strong suit, but the Har-Tru courts are an exception (in 2021, he won the Challenger in Tallahassee). Meanwhile, Tommy Paul really picked himself up after a weaker performance against Cristian Garin at the start of the event. While their recent match was close, he’s generally been dominant in this rivalry, and keeping things tight required some peak level from Brooksby. It’s less likely to happen on clay.
Prediction: Paul in 3
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey – USA TODAY Sports
