If you think I’m not taking a victory lap after suggesting Eala to you yesterday, then you don’t know me. Part of me wishes I had placed the very bet I suggested, the other part of me wants to throw up my PayPal and see if any of my readers who placed that bet wanna buy me dinner. We aim to make you money here on Last Word On Sports, and yesterday sure paid off. Let’s see if today’s suggestions can be as fruitful.
WTA Miami Semifinals
Sabalenka – Paolini: Time 12:00
H2H: 3-2
The premiere match of the semifinals features Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini in the sixth head-to-head matchup of their careers. Sabalenka has a 3-2 lead, but they are 1-1 against each other on hard surfaces. While Sabalenka has spent less time on the court this tournament than Paolini, both women have spent considerable time on hard surfaces in 2025. Sabelenka checks in at 21-4 in 2025 and Paolini at 12-5. Every match they have played has been on hardcourt.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Sabalenka as a convincing favorite, and there is zero reason to believe otherwise based on her 2025 output. Unfortunately, you will not make anything betting on the favorite unless you put down an absurd amount. You can, however, make money betting against Sabalenka if you think Paolini has looked especially locked in. This is one of those throwaways that can you can cash out on if you’ve the gall to put money down. At +500, you can cash out a hefty sum if you pick Paolini.
That being said, Paolini winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Paolini winning @+500 @DraftKings
Pegula – Eala: Time 16:00
H2H: 0-0
Alexandra Eala has been the tournament darling at Miami and after taking down Iga Swiatek in the quarterfinals in straight sets, there’s no reason to think she can’t take advantage of Jessica Pegula in tomorrow’s semifinal. Pegula just wrapped up a grueling 31-game, 3-set slugfest with Emma Raducanu and will be taking on an Alexanda Eala who has only played one game in the last two days due to Paula Badosa pulling out of their quarterfinal match.
Best Bet to Make
Eala has been lights out this tournament, and if you’ve been betting on her, you are already playing with significant house money. Bookmakers have Pegula as a significant favorite. Some books see her as a -600 favorite, but Eala is fresher, is playing slightly better, and has all the confidence in the world on her side. Until she proves otherwise in Miami, Eala is a horse worth betting on.
That being said, Eala winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Eala winning @+450 @DraftKings
Sabalenka – Paolini: Time 12:00
H2H: 3-2
While Sabalenka has been playing immense tennis, so has Paolini. Both players have been so good in 2025 that there’s no reason to think this couldn’t be a back-and-forth match that sees Paolini push it to three sets. Paolini wins 66.1% of her service games on hard surfaces, and Sabalenka wins 78.4% on the same. This game is primed for each lady to hold serve.
Best Bet to Make
The books have this going under 2.5 sets, most have Sabalenka in two. This is where the value comes in for Paolini at +198 for over 2.5 games. You can double your money if you feel confident enough in Paolini winning a single set. It’s a risk, but it’s one of the few opportunities out there to cash in at a higher rate.
That being said, Over 2.5 sets is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Over 2.5 sets @+198 @FanDuel
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images
