ATP Santiago is South America’s last clay-court tournament of the famed Golden Swing. The event has reached the quarterfinal stage, and Argentina’s Sebastian Baez is looking to make history by sweeping the Rio de Janeiro-Santiago double for the second time. Who will reach the final four?
ATP Santiago Quarterfinal Predictions
Laslo Djere vs Jaime Faria
Head-to-head: first meeting
Laslo Djere is enjoying his time in the Golden Swing. He reached the Buenos Aires semifinals as a qualifier, and that caused him to miss the Rio Open because of scheduling. But he’s getting closer to contesting for a rare ATP final this week. Djere knocked out Pedro Martinez in two routine sets to reach his third quarterfinal in Santiago. His opponent, Jaime Faria, is still relatively inexperienced at this level but has impressed in his first season on the ATP Tour. Faria may be the higher-ranked player here, but Djere’s clay-court prowess is far superior.
Prediction: Djere in 2
Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Federico Coria
Head-to-head: Ugo Carabello 3-1 Coria
This is a rivalry that dates back to 2019. Ugo Carabelli won that first meeting in the Buenos Aires Challenger and has gone on to notch two more wins at that level against his countryman Coria. The expectation was that Ugo Carabelli would be running on empty after an energy-sapping week in Rio (he reached the semifinal as a lucky loser). If anything, that run has just given him a fresh dose of energy. He saved match points in his opener against Nicolas Jarry and survived an onslaught from Thiago Monteiro. But maybe this is where he hits a snag against a fresher opponent.
Prediction: Coria in 3
Sebastian Baez vs Damir Dzumhur
Head-to-head: Baez 1-0 Dzumhur
Baez extended his win streak to six matches. He overcame Francisco Comesana in three sets to start his title defense in Santiago in style. The third seed is targeting to lift two clay-court titles in the Golden Swing for the second successive season. Dzumhur was a menace on clay courts on the Challenger last season but failed to translate that form at the Tour level. This will be the Bosnian’s first ATP quarterfinal since 2023. With each match, Baez will become more vulnerable as the energy tank gets depleted. Dzumhur can make this competitive.
Prediction: Baez in 3
Francisco Cerundolo vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Head-to-head: Etcheverry 3-1 Cerundolo
It is a meeting of seeds as Cerundolo and Etcheverry meet for a second time in Santiago. In 2023, Etcheverry won the encounter in three sets and has owned this rivalry. Cerundolo is coming off a hard-fought three-set win over Yannick Hanfmann. Etcheverry, meanwhile, is yet to drop a set in two matches this week. There is little to separate these two regarding their clay-court expertise, but the slight edge is with Etcheverry, who might just sustain the longer rallies.
Prediction: Etcheverry in 3
Main Photo Credit: David Kirouac – USA TODAY Sports
