ATP 500 Rio de Janeiro quarterfinals
Ugo Carabelli – Faria: 21.02.2025 21:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Camilo Ugo Carabelli has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Buenos Aires, Camilo lost in the opening round against Baez in straight sets. This week in Rio de Janeiro, he failed to qualify for the main draw tournament, losing in the final qualifying round against Barrios Vera. However, he entered the main draw as a lucky loser. Ugo Carabelli upset Pablo Martinez in three tight sets in the opening main draw round. After losing the opening set 4-6, Ugo successfully turned the match around. In the second round, Camilo easily won against Dzumhur in straight sets.
Jaime Faria has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Buenos Aires, Faria failed to qualify for the main draw tournament. Faria could not qualify for the main draw tournament this week in Rio de Janeiro. However, with several players withdrawing, Jaime entered the main draw tournament as a lucky loser. In the opening main draw round, Faria won against Barrios Vera in straight sets. Besides losing his serve once in the second set, Faria served well throughout the match. In the second round, Faria upset Munar in three tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 match, but we disagree. Faria never had any success on clay courts at the ATP Tour level. On the other hand, Ugo Carabelli is a clay-court specialist with more experience at the highest level. We expect him to be a better player in this match and win.
That being said, Ugo Carabelli winning is a value bet.
Cerundolo – Muller: 22.02.2025 00:00 CEST
H2H: 0-1
Francisco Cerundolo has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Buenos Aires, Cerundolo reached the final, losing against Fonseca in tight straight sets. En route to the final, Cerundolo defeated Zverev. This week in Rio de Janeiro, Cerundolo defeated Gaston in straight sets. Francisco trailed 3-6 in the opening set tiebreak and saved three consecutive set points. He saved five set points altogether in the opening set. Cerundolo stepped up his level in the second set and demolished Gaston 6-0. Francisco lost the opening set 6-7 in the second round against Darderi. However, he successfully turned the match around.
Alexandre Muller has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Buenos Aires, Muller lost in the opening round match against Djere in straight sets. This week in Rio, Muller upset one of the biggest favorites, Joao Fonseca. After winning his maiden ATP title, Fonseca looked exhausted on the court. Muller played great, saving both breakpoints he offered. He won in straight sets without any problems. In the second round, Muller won against Etcheverry in tight straight sets. Alexandre ended his 2024 clay court season by winning a Challenger title in San Marino.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Cerundolo is the favorite in this matchup, and we agree. Muller played well this week, but Cerundolo is a better clay-court player. We expect Francisco to dominate and win easily.
That being said, Cerundolo winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Francisco Cerundolo winning 2-0 @2.10 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: David Kirouac-USA TODAY Sports
