ATP 500 Doha 1/8-Finals
O’Connell – Draper: 19.02.2025 14:00 CEST
H2H: 2-0
Christopher O’Connell has won three of his last five matches. The last match he played before the ATP Doha was at the Australian Open, losing against Paul in five tight sets. This week in Doha, Christopher successfully qualified for the main draw tournament. O’Connell won against Habib in straight sets in the opening main draw round. He won both tiebreaks and was excellent under pressure.
Jack Draper has won three of his last five matches. So far this season, Draper has only played at the Australian Open. He retired in the 1/8-Finals against Alcaraz after losing the second set 1-6. Jack had his off-season ruined by a hip injury. He played three five-setters in Melbourne and eventually retired because he was out of fuel against Alcaraz. Jack won the opening match against Popyrin this week in Doha in straight sets. He offered and saved only one breakpoint. Last year around this time, Draper played in Los Cabos, losing in the opening round against Kokkinakis in three tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Christopher is the big underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He is a heavy server and will win his service games easily. Last year at the Indian Wells, Christopher won against Draper in three sets. We expect a tight match that could go either way.
That being said, O’Connell covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Christopher O’Connell +4.5 games handicap @1.67 @bet365
Alcaraz – Nardi: 19.02.2025 17:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Carlos Alcaraz has won six straight matches. Two weeks ago in Rotterdam, Carlos won the title, winning against de Minaur in the final as we predicted. Carlos defeated Cilic in the opening round in tight straight sets this week in Doha, as we had predicted. So far this season, Carlos has played only two tournaments. Carlos reached the quarterfinals at the Australian Open, losing against Djokovic in four tight sets. Around this time last year, Carlos skipped all tournaments between the Australian Open and Indian Wells.
Luca Nardi has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Marseille, Nardi lost in the opening round against Altmaier in straight sets. This week in Doha, Nardi qualified for the main draw tournament without losing a set. He continued playing well in the opening main draw round as well. Luca won against Zhang in straight sets. He was broken down in the second set but successfully turned it around by winning four consecutive games.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Alcaraz is the big favorite in this matchup, and we agree. Carlos has won six straight matches and is playing well. He is a way better player than Nardi, and we expect him to dominate from the start until the end.
That being said, Alcaraz covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Carlos Alcaraz -6.5 games handicap @-110 @FanDuel
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
