ATP 500 Rotterdam 1/16-Finals
Kovacevic – Mpetshi Perricard: 04.02.2025 Time TBA
H2H: first meeting
Aleksandar Kovacevic has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Montpellier, he reached the final, losing against Auger-Aliassime in three tight sets. En route to the final, Kovacevic defeated Goffin, Bublik, Rublev, and some other solid players. He performed well in his first ATP Final, which was his first appearance in Rotterdam. Around this time last year, Kovacevic played in Dallas, losing in the opening round against Koepfer in straight sets.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard has won three of his last five matches. The young Frenchman had a decent run in Brisbane at the beginning of the season, eventually failing in the semifinals against Opelka. En route to the semifinals, Giovanni had solid wins against prominent hard-court players such as Tiafoe and Nick Kyrgios. Yesterday, Giovanni helped France win against Brazil in the Davis Cup. It is his first appearance in Rotterdam.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Kovacevic is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. Aleksandar played well last week in Montpellier and will be confident coming into this match. We expect a very tight match that could go either way. Giovanni is a big server but struggles with his return game.
That being said, Kovacevic covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Aleksandar Kovacevic +2.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365
Rublev – Zhang: 04.02.2025 Time TBA
H2H: 3-0
Andrey Rublev has lost three of his last five matches. Two weeks ago in Melbourne, Rublev lost in the opening round of the Australian Open against Fonseca. Last week in Montpellier, Andrey reached the semifinals, losing against Kovacevic in straight sets. It is his ninth appearance in Rotterdam. In 2021, Andrey won the title in Rotterdam, winning against Fucsovics in the final. Last season, Rublev reached the quarterfinals, losing against de Minaur in three tight sets.
Zhizhen Zhang has lost four of his last five matches. Last week, Zhang ended his losing streak in the Davis Cup, helping China win over Montenegro. Two weeks ago in Melbourne, Zhang lost against Rune in the opening round in five tight sets. It is his second appearance in Rotterdam. Last year, Zhang lost in the opening round against Shevchenko in three sets. Zhizhen is usually underperforming on indoor courts.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Rublev is the favorite in this matchup, and we agree. Andrey won all three head-to-head meetings against Zhang, and we expect him to continue that streak. Last season in Cincinnati, under similar conditions, Rublev dominated against Zhang in straight sets. Andrey is not in his best form, but he loves to play on indoor courts, especially in Rotterdam, where he already won the title. We believe he will dominate from the start and win easily tomorrow.
That being said, Rublev winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Andrey Rublev winning 2-0 @1.83 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
