ATP Australian Open 1/32-Finals
Thompson – Borges: 15.01.2025 03:00 CEST
H2H: 0-2
Jordan Thompson has won three of his last five matches. So far this season, Jordan has only played in one preparation tournament. Last week in Brisbane, Thompson reached the quarterfinals, retiring mid-match against Dimitrov. Jordan had a sore calf and decided it was better to retire and rest for the Australian Open. In Melbourne, Jordan defeated Koepfer in four sets in the opening round. Last year in Melbourne, Thompson reached the second round, losing against Tsitsipas in four tight sets.
Nuno Borges has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Auckland, Borges reached the semifinals, losing against Bergs in three tight sets, as we predicted. In the opening Australian Open round, Borges won against Muller in four sets after losing the first set 6-7. Nuno lost his serve only once in the whole match. Last year in Melbourne, Nuno reached the fourth round, losing against Medvedev in four sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 match, but we disagree. Thompson will have a packed crowd on his side. He is a slightly better hard-court player than Borges, but he is way more experienced playing at the highest level. We expect his experience and crowd to prevail in this match.
That being said, Thompson winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Jordan Thompson winning @1.73 @bet365
Nishioka – Alcaraz: 15.01.2025 03:00 CEST
H2H: 0-1
Yoshihito Nishioka has won three of his last five matches. At the beginning of the season, Nishioka played in Brisbane, losing against Lehecka in the second main draw round in three tight sets. Last week in Adelaide, Nishioka lost in the opening round against Kokkinakis in three tight sets, as we had predicted. Here in Melbourne, Nishioka started slowly against Dougaz. He lost the opening set 3-6 but turned the match around by winning three consecutive sets. Yoshihito suffered on his serve, offering eight breakpoints. Last year in the Australian Open, Nishioka lost in the opening round against Rune in four sets.
Carlos Alcaraz has won three of his last five matches. The last match he played before the Australian Open was previous year in the Davis Cup, winning against Griekspoor in straight sets. Carlos dominated against Shevchenko in the opening round in Melbourne, winning in easy straight sets. Alcaraz had a great 2024 season, winning two Grand Slam titles. Last year in Melbourne, Carlos reached the quarterfinals, losing against Zverev in four sets. Alcaraz never had any success in Australia. Reaching the quarterfinals is also his best result in the Australian Open.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Alcaraz is the big favorite in this matchup, and we agree. Nishioka has no weapon for Alcaraz’s game. We expect Carlos to dominate this match from the start until the end. Nishioka struggled in his opening round against a qualifier. On the other hand, Alcaraz dominated against Shevchenko.
That being said, Alcaraz covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Carlos Alcaraz -9.5 games @2.00 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
