We wrap up the first round of the Australian Open on Day 3, with 20 men’s matches on the schedule. As always, our writers here at LastWordOnTennis share their thoughts on every single match with you. We split the 20 matches between five articles, with the other four featuring Gael Monfils vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Taylor Fritz vs Jenson Brooksby, Daniil Medvedev vs Kasidit Samrej, and Andrey Rublev vs Joao Fonseca. Predicting these matches are Damian Kust, Shane Black, and Andreas Pelekis. Who do you think will advance?
Australian Open Day 3 Men’s Predictions
Alexander Bublik vs Francisco Cerundolo
Damian:
Cerundolo is usually the more up-and-down player on the court, but certainly not in this case. You never know what to expect from Bublik and best you can do is take an educated guess. Mine is that the Kazakh seems to be in one of his poor patches right now and if Cerundolo can play a bit more solidly than usual, he’s probably going to take it.
Prediction: Cerundolo in 4
Shane:
In one of the most intriguing first round matches on the men’s side, not much separates Bublik and Cerundolo. The speed of the courts should benefit the Kzach, but his lack of focus has never led to success at the Australian Open. Cerundolo, who battles every point, should outlast Bublik.
Prediction: Cerundolo in 4
Andreas:
Bublik has struggled lately on the ATP Tour, and he is 2-8 since Wimbledon last summer. The two are similarly ranked, and Cerundolo hasn’t been playing too well either, losing in his only 2025 match thus far. However, Cerundolo’s big forehand should be enough against Bublik, who hasn’t been able to focus and stay mentally tough as of late.
Prediction: Cerundolo in 4
Zizou Bergs vs Facundo Diaz Acosta
Damian:
Bergs will not be too fresh after that long Auckland run, so this is a question of whether the hard-court quality gap between him and Diaz Acosta will be enough. He’s had a few days of rest, maybe he’ll be fine in the opening round. But it would be unwise to expect him to come out firing and playing his best tennis.
Prediction: Bergs in 4
Shane:
Coming off a run to the Auckland finals, Bergs enters Australia with a boatload of confidence. His Argentinian opponent has struggled over the last six months and is susceptible on hard courts. Give me the Belgian.
Prediction: Bergs in 4
Andreas:
While Diaz Acosta won two matches last week in Auckland, the Argentinian only has four total hard-court wins at tour level to his name. Bergs just made his first ATP final, also in Auckland, and his game looks to be on the rise. Look for the Belgian to reach the second round.
Prediction: Bergs in 4
Ben Shelton vs Brandon Nakashima
Damian:
Shelton isn’t winning too many easy matches at the moment, still getting into lottery outcomes with how serve-oriented he is. Nakashima could capitalize on that and get to the tie-breaks, but his start to the season has been pretty awful. Ultimately it’s probably Shelton who should come out victorious, but he’s not winning too many matches 3-0 in Slams.
Prediction: Shelton in 4
Shane:
This all-American battle should produce many high-quality points between two elite ball-strikers. Both players lost early in their Australian Open tune-ups but have the talent and confidence to make a run to the second week in Melbourne. I give the slight edge to Shelton, who can bail himself out of tough situations with his serve.
Prediction: Shelton in 5
Andreas:
This will be a tough match for Shelton, as Nakashima enjoys playing consistent all-court tennis, and Shelton relies on energetic power. Both players will have to serve well to stand a chance, and either player can quickly capitalize on momentum shifts. Shelton is 4-0 in sets played against Nakashima, and he’s had more success at the Australian Open during his young career. Look for him to win in four sets.
Prediction: Shelton in 4
Daniil Medvedev vs Kasidit Samrej
Damian:
Samrej won the Asia-Pacific wildcard play-off, but that event had a pretty weak line-up this year. Even at the Challenger level, the Thai player has a very negative record and just one quarterfinal. There are some concerns regarding Medvedev’s form and if his shoulder issue has fully healed, but that won’t come into play here.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3
Shane:
With all the attention on Sinner, Alcaraz and Djokovic, I expect Daniil Medvedev to quietly have another strong run Down Under. Samrej, ranked outside the top 400, will enjoy the moment but won’t put up much of a fight.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3
Andreas:
Samrej is ranked No. 414 in the world, clinching one of the exciting wild card spots given to Asia-Pacific Wildcard Playoff winners. According to the Australian Open website, his appearance means he’s the first Thai man to play in a Grand Slam since 2012. This will be a tough outing against Medvedev, as the Russian will feel comfortable in front of a big crowd.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
