Gill Gross is a well-known tennis analyst and commentator. He is widely recognized for his in-depth coverage of professional tennis, particularly on his YouTube channel and podcast.
On December 25th, Gross posted a ‘Monday Match Analysis’ episode in which he shared his ATP top 10 year-end ranking predictions for 2025, which he has been doing for the past three years. Gross made an interesting prediction for Daniil Medvedev’s year-end rankings.
Gill Gross makes bold ranking predictions
2024 was the worst year for Daniil Medvedev since 2018, as he failed to win any titles and won less than 70% of his matches. It would be a great season for most players, but Medvedev has set higher standards for himself. The Russian still ended the year inside the top five, making it six consecutive year-ends inside the top 10. He has only ended outside the top five once since 2018, when he finished the 2022 season in seventh place. However, Gill Gross predicts that Medvedev will have an even worse year than 2024, finishing in ninth place.
One of the major reasons behind his prediction was Medvedev’s decline in serve. According to Tennis Abstract, the Russian’s ace rate was eight percent in 2024, his worst since 2016 (Medvedev’s first year on tour). 13 players inside the top 100 stand at least 6 feet 5 inches tall, and everyone except Tomas Martin Etcheverry had a better ace rate than Medvedev in 2024. Medvedev’s double fault rate was also the worst of his career in 2024. All this resulted in a significant drop in hold percentage for the former world No. 1.
Other reasons stated by Gross included Medvedev’s inability to overcome Sinner and Alcaraz, which is because his natural game is not offensive enough to affect the two, and he will struggle to change his game style.
Medvedev isn’t getting any younger, turning 29 in February. 29 is no longer a post-prime age in tennis, but Medvedev is a tall player who relies a lot on his movement and defense. He will slow down and find adapting to a more aggressive game harder. It will be interesting to observe how Medvedev performs in 2025.
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke – USA TODAY Sports
