ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai 1/16-Finals
Carballes Baena – Shelton: 07.10.2024 Time TBA
H2H: 0-1
Roberto Carballes Baena has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Beijing, Baena lost his opening match against Khachanov in straight sets as we predicted. Here in Shanghai, Roberto defeated Bautista-Agut in the opening round, after losing the first set. Yesterday in the second round of the tournament, Baena upset Fils in two tiebreaks. Last year in Shanghai, Baena lost in the first round against Vukic in straight sets.
Ben Shelton has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Tokyo, Shelton reached the quarterfinals, where he lost against Fils, who ended up winning the tournament. Ben was the defending champion in Tokyo, but he could not defend it. Here in Shanghai, Ben defeated Shapovalov in his opening match in straight sets. Ben served well, not offering any breakpoints throughout the whole match. Last year in Shanghai, Shelton reached the quarterfinals, where he lost against Sebastian Korda in three tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Shelton is the favorite in this matchup. Ben thrives under these conditions. He loves to play fast and aggressive tennis. Last year, Shelton won the title in Tokyo, and showed great tennis on the Asian swing. On the other hand, Baena is a clay court specialist, who never had any success on the fast courts such as this one.
That being said, Shelton winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Ben Shelton winning 2-0 @1.67 @bet365
Alcaraz – Wu: 07.10.2024 Time TBA
H2H: first meeting
Carlos Alcaraz has won 10 straight matches. Last week in Beijing, Carlos lifted the title. Alcaraz defeated Sinner in the final as we predicted. It was a tough three-setter, but Carlos played better under pressure, and deservedly won the title. Here in Shanghai, Carlos won his opening match against Shang in straight sets. Last week, Carlos lost his world number 2 ranking to Alexander Zverev. However, with his recent run here in Beijing, Alcaraz quickly returned to 2nd spot in the world. Last year in Shanghai, Carlos lost in the 1/8-Finals against Dimitrov in three tight sets.
Yibing Wu has lost three of his last five matches. Wu is outside the top 500 in the rankings, and has spent most of his career playing at the ITF level. This is by far the biggest success of his career. Wu was granted a wild card here in Shanghai. In the first round, Wu defeated Nagal in straight sets. Yesterday, in the second round of the tournament, Wu demolished Jarry in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Alcaraz is the big favorite in this matchup. We believe that he will have another dominating performance. Wu is far away from Alcaraz´s level, so we think that he will have no chance against Carlos. Alcaraz is on a great winning run, and we expect him to continue in that fashion.
That being said, Alcaraz covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Carlos Alcaraz -5.5 games handicap @1.81 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
