ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai 1/32-Finals
Paul – Fognini: 04.10.2024 06:30 CEST
H2H: 1-1
Tommy Paul has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Tokyo, Tommy lost against Machac in the 1/8-Finals. Paul has been struggling with his form in the second part of the season, failing to break into the top 10 in the rankings. He is still running to qualify for the ATP Finals in Turin, so he is hoping for a solid result this week. Last year in Shanghai, Paul reached the third round, where he lost against Rublev.
Fabio Fognini has lost four of his last five matches. Last week in Beijing, Fognini failed to qualify for the main-draw tournament, losing against Rinderknech in the first qualifying round. Here in Shanghai, Fabio won his opening round match against Darderi in three tight sets as we predicted. Fognini has made ten appearances here in Shanghai, and never had any success. Last year in Shanghai, Fognini lost in the first round against Kokkinakis in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Tommy is the big favorite in this matchup. We believe that Fognini will have a chance against him. Fabio loves to play under these conditions, so we expect him to keep this match tight.
That being said, Fognini covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Fabio Fognini +5.5 games handicap @1.83 @bet365
Shapovalov – Shelton: 04.10.2024 06:30 CEST
H2H: 0-2
Denis Shapovalov has won four of his last five matches. The Canadian is slowly getting better and returning to his best days. Here in Shanghai, Shapovalov successfully qualified throughout the qualifying tournament. In the first qualifying round, Denis defeated Hsu in straight sets. After that, in the final qualifying round, Denis lost the first set against Shimabukuro. However, in the second set, Shimabukuro retired due to an injury. Yesterday, in the first round of main draw, Denis defeated Sonego in straight sets as we predicted. Shapovalov tends to play his best tennis at the Masters level. He is looking for a solid result this week to get back into the top 100 in the rankings.
Ben Shelton has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Tokyo, Shelton reached the quarterfinals, where he lost against Fils, who ended up winning the tournament. Ben was the defending champion in Tokyo, but he could not defend it. Last year in Shanghai, Shelton reached the quarterfinals, where he lost against Sebastian Korda in three tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this should be a 50-50 match. We believe that Denis will be a better player under these conditions. Shelton underperformed last week in Tokyo. On the other hand, Denis has already won three matches here in Shanghai, so we think that he will be fully confident coming into this matchup.
That being said, Shapovalov winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Denis Shapovalov winning @2.10 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
