ATP 500 Tokyo final
Fils – Humbert: 01.10.2024 12:00 CEST
H2H: 0-4
Arthur Fils has won five straight matches. Two weeks ago, Arthur represented France in the Davis Cup. He lost two matches, and won only one. Fils had his biggest results on clay this season. Here in Tokyo, Fils upset Fritz in the opening round in three tight sets. Fils served well, losing his serve only once in the match. He ended the match by hitting 32 winners with 18 unforced errors. In the second round, Berrettini won the first set 7-6 against Fils, but retired after that. After enduring the pain, following the physio’s check-up, the Italian decided to withdraw to avoid risking a more serious injury. In the quarterfinals, Fils defeated Shelton in three tight sets. It was a great match for both players. Fils failed to close out the match in the second set, after not converting two match points on his serve. In the deciding set, Fils led 4-2, but once again could not hold his serve when it was most important. However, Arthur stayed calm in the tiebreak, and closed out the match comfortably. Today, in the semifinals, Arthur defeated Rune in straight sets. Around this time last year, Fils played in Shanghai, where he lost against Tommy Paul in the third round of the tournament. Arthur is close to getting into the top 20, so he is hoping for a decent result this week in Tokyo.
Ugo Humbert has won four of his last five matches. After being upset by Comesana in the second round of the US Open, Humbert played in the Davis Cup for France. In his last Davis Cup match, Humbert lost against Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets as we predicted. Here in Tokyo, Humbert defeated Mochizuki in the opening round in straight sets as we predicted. Ugo offered and saved two breakpoints. He ended up winning the match 6-1 6-2. After that, in the 1/8-Finals, Humbert defeated Nakashima in straight sets as we predicted. Once again, Humbert saved all three breakpoints. His serving performance was on point. Ugo ended the match with 34 winners and 18 unforced errors. In the quarterfinals, Ugo won the first set against Draper 7-5. At the beginning of the second set, Draper retired due to an abdominal injury. Humbert lost his serve twice in the first set. However, his return game was on point, so he managed to break Jack’s serve three times. Today in the semifinals, Humbert defeated Machac in three tight sets as we predicted. Ugo is still a top 20 player, and is looking for a solid result this week to cement his top 20 status. So far this season, Humbert has won two ATP titles already. Those results were at the beginning of the season, where he won the title in Marseille and in Dubai as well.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Humbert is the slight favorite in this matchup, and we agree with that. Ugo is a more experienced player than Fils, so we think that his experience will prevail in this matchup.
That being said, Humbert winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Ugo Humbert winning @1.53 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Danielle Parhizkaran-USA TODAY Sports
