ATP 500 Tokyo 1/16-Finals
Opelka – Shelton: 26.09.2024 05:30 CEST
H2H: 0-1
Reilly Opelka has lost three of his last five matches. Two weeks ago, Opelka helped USA in the Davis Cup to qualify for the knockout stage. Reilly won both of his singles matches, and showed solid tennis. Last week in Hangzhou, Opelka failed to qualify for the main-draw tournament, losing against Yevseyev in the first qualifying round. This is a comeback year for Opelka, who is slowly, but surely coming back to his highest level.
Ben Shelton has won three of his last five matches. After he lost in the third round of the US Open against Tiafoe, Ben took some time off. Last week, Ben played in the Laver Cup, where he lost against Alcaraz, and won against Medvedev. Shelton is looking for a solid result this week to cement his top 20 status. Last year in Tokyo, Ben won the tournament, which was his maiden ATP title, winning against Karatsev in straight sets. That being said, Shelton has a lot of points to defend this week.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Opelka is the big underdog in this matchup. We believe that his serve will be a big weapon on this surface. Both players are big servers, so we expect this match to be very tight. We believe that Opelka will have a decent chance tomorrow.
That being said, Opelka covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Reilly Opelka +2.5 games handicap @1.80 @bet365
Tiafoe – Nakashima: 26.09.2024 07:00 CEST
H2H: 5-0
Frances Tiafoe has won three of his last five matches. After losing against Fritz in the semifinals of the US Open as we predicted, Tiafoe took some time off. Last week, Frances played in the Laver Cup, where he won against Medvedev, and lost against Zverev. So far this season, Tiafoe has had his biggest results on the fast hard courts such as this one. Last year in Tokyo, Frances lost his opening match against Karatsev in straight sets.
Brandon Nakashima has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Hangzhou, Brandon reached the semifinals, where he lost against Marin CIlic in straight sets as we predicted. Marin ended up winning the tournament as the lowest ranked player ever to win the tournament. Last year in Tokyo, Nakashima lost his opening match against Uchiyama in three tight sets. Brandon is looking for a solid result this week, to get into the top 30 in the rankings.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this should be a 50-50 match. Nakashima played solid tennis last week, which was a great tournament preparation for him. We believe that he will be fully confident coming into this match. On the other hand, Tiafoe played great on the fast courts this season, so we believe that he will also perform well tomorrow. We expect a tight match, with three possible sets.
That being said, over games is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: over 24.5 games @1.83 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
